Green Book November 1997
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Featured Articles
1997 Volatility: Wow!
Obviously 1997 to date has been a high volatility year. This degree of day to day volatility was last recorded in 1987.
Bond Market Summary
Among the industrial nations, U.S. bond market offers highest yields, a reversal from earlier in the decade. Inflation outlook positive.
Catch the Falling Knives
Further global emerging market turmoil could provide tactical opportunity to accumulate positions at bargain basement levels via closed end country funds. Now at discounts to NAV.
Equity Fund Flows...Short Term
The big volatility week at the end of October didn’t seem to cause much panic among fund buyers (maybe it was good they couldn’t get through on Monday). We are guessing the sustained strong net inflows will bounce back strongly.
Joke of the Month
This winner was told by Jim Fraser, Impresario at last month’s Contrary Opinion Forum in Vermont. We will be sending the November Blue Ribbon to Jim.
Q3 Earnings Scorecard: Strong Across The Board
Small cap earnings momentum appears to have improved significantly again in Q3, but this was matched by an equally impressive earnings performance by big caps.
Scanning the Markets
Only nine of the 75 sectors tracked moved higher in October. Small caps shifted back to underperformers by going down more than the Big Cap Indices. Technology was devastated.
Stock/Bond Relationship...It Is Changing
Increasingly, stock and bond markets moving in opposite directions. There may be some reasons why this is happening now.
The Greatest Drama on Television?
Major Trend Index downshifts to neutral. Big loss in Technical measures due to late October sell off. We are in a critical market period...Have Mr. And Ms. Main-Street become more skittish after experiencing a dose of downside risk?
View From the North Country
More and more employees get stock options these days, but for shareholders this can be a loser’s game. Comments on autumn in Vermont and the “Masochist’s Ball” (Contrary Opinion Forum).
Worth Noting
Main Street math, fund managers age and experience and average mutual fund shareholder profits.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From the North Country
- The Greatest Drama on Television?
- 1997 Volatility: Wow!
- Equity Fund Flows...Short Term
- Stock/Bond Relationship...It Is Changing
- Worth Noting
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
1997 Volatility: Wow!
Obviously 1997 to date has been a high volatility year. This degree of day to day volatility was last recorded in 1987.
Bond Market Summary
Among the industrial nations, U.S. bond market offers highest yields, a reversal from earlier in the decade. Inflation outlook positive.
Catch the Falling Knives
Further global emerging market turmoil could provide tactical opportunity to accumulate positions at bargain basement levels via closed end country funds. Now at discounts to NAV.
Equity Fund Flows...Short Term
The big volatility week at the end of October didn’t seem to cause much panic among fund buyers (maybe it was good they couldn’t get through on Monday). We are guessing the sustained strong net inflows will bounce back strongly.
Joke of the Month
This winner was told by Jim Fraser, Impresario at last month’s Contrary Opinion Forum in Vermont. We will be sending the November Blue Ribbon to Jim.
Q3 Earnings Scorecard: Strong Across The Board
Small cap earnings momentum appears to have improved significantly again in Q3, but this was matched by an equally impressive earnings performance by big caps.
Scanning the Markets
Only nine of the 75 sectors tracked moved higher in October. Small caps shifted back to underperformers by going down more than the Big Cap Indices. Technology was devastated.
Stock/Bond Relationship...It Is Changing
Increasingly, stock and bond markets moving in opposite directions. There may be some reasons why this is happening now.
The Greatest Drama on Television?
Major Trend Index downshifts to neutral. Big loss in Technical measures due to late October sell off. We are in a critical market period...Have Mr. And Ms. Main-Street become more skittish after experiencing a dose of downside risk?
View From the North Country
More and more employees get stock options these days, but for shareholders this can be a loser’s game. Comments on autumn in Vermont and the “Masochist’s Ball” (Contrary Opinion Forum).
Worth Noting
Main Street math, fund managers age and experience and average mutual fund shareholder profits.
Stock Market
- View From the North Country
- The Greatest Drama on Television?
- 1997 Volatility: Wow!
- Equity Fund Flows...Short Term
- Stock/Bond Relationship...It Is Changing
- Worth Noting