Green Book March 1997
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Featured Articles
A Sector Dissection of the S&P 500
Jim Floyd’s breakdown of eleven broad sectors within the S&P 500. The S&P 500 experienced 24 component stock changes during 1996. New component additions were not balanced within the sectors by the stock deletions.
Bond Market Summary
Bond rally should be rekindled by mid-year. U.S. yields remain relatively high compared to foreign yields. Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months.
Current Outlook
It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term the market may go higher.
Earnings Up/Down Ratio: Powerful Fourth Quarter Momentum
Earnings momentum studies indicating a re-acceleration rather than a continuation of the earnings slowdown we’ve been seeing. Earnings up/down ration at 2.20. One of the strongest ever recorded.
February Mutual Fund Flows
Revised January 1997 U.S. equity mutual fund flows of $23.4 billion, setting an all-time record. February’s estimate of $20 billion brings YTD U.S. focus fund flows to $43 billion, well ahead of last year’s record pace.
Joke of the Month
Last issue’s “View from the North Country” was entirely devoted to 1997’s Fearless Forecasts. Thus, no joke of the month. So, in this issue two blue ribbons will be awarded.
Playing the Bounce Update
This year we did not employ this late 1996-early 1997 tactical trading strategy. Nevertheless, some of our readers did employ the strategy, so we continue to monitor performance.
Scanning the Markets
Year to date, both the DJIA and the S&P 500 have outperformed 55 of the 73 sectors we track (75%).
Worth Noting and Quoting
Reasonable valuations(?), risk reductions and the wealth effect.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Current Outlook
- February Mutual Fund Flows
- A Sector Dissection of the S&P 500
- Playing the Bounce Update
- Worth Noting and Quoting
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
A Sector Dissection of the S&P 500
Jim Floyd’s breakdown of eleven broad sectors within the S&P 500. The S&P 500 experienced 24 component stock changes during 1996. New component additions were not balanced within the sectors by the stock deletions.
Bond Market Summary
Bond rally should be rekindled by mid-year. U.S. yields remain relatively high compared to foreign yields. Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months.
Current Outlook
It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term the market may go higher.
Earnings Up/Down Ratio: Powerful Fourth Quarter Momentum
Earnings momentum studies indicating a re-acceleration rather than a continuation of the earnings slowdown we’ve been seeing. Earnings up/down ration at 2.20. One of the strongest ever recorded.
February Mutual Fund Flows
Revised January 1997 U.S. equity mutual fund flows of $23.4 billion, setting an all-time record. February’s estimate of $20 billion brings YTD U.S. focus fund flows to $43 billion, well ahead of last year’s record pace.
Joke of the Month
Last issue’s “View from the North Country” was entirely devoted to 1997’s Fearless Forecasts. Thus, no joke of the month. So, in this issue two blue ribbons will be awarded.
Playing the Bounce Update
This year we did not employ this late 1996-early 1997 tactical trading strategy. Nevertheless, some of our readers did employ the strategy, so we continue to monitor performance.
Scanning the Markets
Year to date, both the DJIA and the S&P 500 have outperformed 55 of the 73 sectors we track (75%).
Worth Noting and Quoting
Reasonable valuations(?), risk reductions and the wealth effect.
Stock Market
- Current Outlook
- February Mutual Fund Flows
- A Sector Dissection of the S&P 500
- Playing the Bounce Update
- Worth Noting and Quoting