Green Book September 1996
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Featured Articles
August: Few Surprises
The stock market performed pretty much as expected in August, although experiencing a somewhat unusual fade at month end. Major Trend remains negative. Some improvement but still a long way from Neutral.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow by year end, inflation should remain under control, corporate earnings momentum expected to gradually fade.
Buy California: New Sector in Paid to Play Portfolio
Consumer groups more attractive. “Buy California”, ranked among the top since May, heavily composed of consumer issues.
Can This Happen Here?
Assets under management in Japan's mutual fund industry now at 9% of what they were less than 7 years ago.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
Mutual fund net inflows increase to an estimated $14 billion in August.
Expecting Stocks Down and Bonds Up? Explain Please
“If you are expecting long bond rates to fall as low as 6% later in 1997, how come you are so afraid of the stock market?” This question, or some variation thereof, is frequently heard from clients these days.
Joke of the Month
The Blue Ribbon goes to Wils Robinson, but an assist goes to Walter Deemer who creatively sanitized it into borderline printable shape.
Oil Equipment & Services…Gushing Performance Again
Conventional Equity Portfolio establishing a new 10% holding in “Oil Equipment & Services”. A play on production and exploration in 1000 “Oil Patch” companies. Does not include 600 major oil companies.
REITs: Building Upon Our Foundation
Conventional Portfolio boosting REIT holdings above the 8-10% core position. New purchases increase REITs to 12% of total assets. Increase viewed as tactical move, NOT an upward revision in core position.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by August performance.
View from the North Country
Market timing: key to long term timing success is discipline. Politics 1996: the election outcome that minimizes prospects of decisive political action may provide the best market environment.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View from the North Country
- August: Few Surprises
- Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
- Can This Happen Here?
- Expecting Stocks Down and Bonds Up? Explain Please
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Buy California: New Sector in Paid to Play Portfolio
- Oil Equipment & Services…Gushing Performance Again
- Scanning the Markets
At Random
August: Few Surprises
The stock market performed pretty much as expected in August, although experiencing a somewhat unusual fade at month end. Major Trend remains negative. Some improvement but still a long way from Neutral.
Bond Market Summary
Bonds (including zeros) expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow by year end, inflation should remain under control, corporate earnings momentum expected to gradually fade.
Buy California: New Sector in Paid to Play Portfolio
Consumer groups more attractive. “Buy California”, ranked among the top since May, heavily composed of consumer issues.
Can This Happen Here?
Assets under management in Japan's mutual fund industry now at 9% of what they were less than 7 years ago.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
Mutual fund net inflows increase to an estimated $14 billion in August.
Expecting Stocks Down and Bonds Up? Explain Please
“If you are expecting long bond rates to fall as low as 6% later in 1997, how come you are so afraid of the stock market?” This question, or some variation thereof, is frequently heard from clients these days.
Joke of the Month
The Blue Ribbon goes to Wils Robinson, but an assist goes to Walter Deemer who creatively sanitized it into borderline printable shape.
Oil Equipment & Services…Gushing Performance Again
Conventional Equity Portfolio establishing a new 10% holding in “Oil Equipment & Services”. A play on production and exploration in 1000 “Oil Patch” companies. Does not include 600 major oil companies.
REITs: Building Upon Our Foundation
Conventional Portfolio boosting REIT holdings above the 8-10% core position. New purchases increase REITs to 12% of total assets. Increase viewed as tactical move, NOT an upward revision in core position.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by August performance.
View from the North Country
Market timing: key to long term timing success is discipline. Politics 1996: the election outcome that minimizes prospects of decisive political action may provide the best market environment.
Stock Market
- View from the North Country
- August: Few Surprises
- Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
- Can This Happen Here?
- Expecting Stocks Down and Bonds Up? Explain Please
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Buy California: New Sector in Paid to Play Portfolio
- Oil Equipment & Services…Gushing Performance Again
- Scanning the Markets