Green Book November 1996
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
Bonds outperformed stocks over past two months. Most investors not well positioned to take advantage of an extended period of bond’s performance superiority. As inflation threat recedes and economy slows, bonds should continue to outperform.
Earnings Up/Down Ratio: Third Quarter Results Good So Far
Our earnings momentum studies show some slowing year over year, but not as much as Wall Street seems to believe.
Energy…Natural Gas: Increasing Portfolio Holdings
Boosting commitments in Natural Gas by 3%. Sector has ranked in the Most Attractive category for seven straight months.
Insurance…Life: Increasing Portfolio Holdings
Boosting commitments in this sector by 5%. We expect lower interest rates over the next 6-12 months, and this sector should benefit.
Joke of the Month
We have two winners this month. The first winner comes from Michael D. Hirsch, who happens to be our only reader in Israel. The second winner comes from The Leuthold Group’s Connie Schultz.
Looking Behind the “Household” Numbers
Are U.S. “Households” net equity sellers? We don’t think so!
October Mutual Fund Flows
U.S. mutual fund flow less bullish in October (may be seasonal).
Playing the Bounce Update
Running a fresh “Playing the Bounce” screen at month end netted quite a handful of new names, and a few deletions from our previous screen featured in the October Interim Memo.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by October performance.
Tactically Increasing REIT Exposure in Conventional Portfolio
REITs continually ranked this year among Most Attractive. After tactical additions, 15% now invested in REITs. Interest in these real estate proxies is definitely increasing, by both institutional and individual investors.
The Stock Market and the Economy: Lead and Lag Relationships
In past issues, we have postulated that the next major stock market decline would not precede an economic downturn as it typically has in the past. Rather, the relationship would be coincidental, with the stock market and the economy turning down at about the same time.
View from the North Country
Scarce on Wall Street: “SELL” recommendations. Why? Also, The Great American Weight Gain: How can the typical American really consume so much in a single year?
Year-End Cross Currents Start Early
While September was a surprisingly strong month, October was just confusing. Year-end cross currents seem to have started early this year. Major Trend Index now just barely in neutral territory with a ratio of 0.95.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Year-End Cross Currents Start Early
- Looking Behind the “Household” Numbers
- October Mutual Fund Flows
- The Stock Market and the Economy: Lead and Lag Relationships
- Playing the Bounce Update
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Insurance…Life: Increasing Portfolio Holdings
- Energy…Natural Gas: Increasing Portfolio Holdings
- Tactically Increasing REIT Exposure in Conventional Portfolio
- Scanning the Markets
At Random
Bond Market Summary
Bonds outperformed stocks over past two months. Most investors not well positioned to take advantage of an extended period of bond’s performance superiority. As inflation threat recedes and economy slows, bonds should continue to outperform.
Earnings Up/Down Ratio: Third Quarter Results Good So Far
Our earnings momentum studies show some slowing year over year, but not as much as Wall Street seems to believe.
Energy…Natural Gas: Increasing Portfolio Holdings
Boosting commitments in Natural Gas by 3%. Sector has ranked in the Most Attractive category for seven straight months.
Insurance…Life: Increasing Portfolio Holdings
Boosting commitments in this sector by 5%. We expect lower interest rates over the next 6-12 months, and this sector should benefit.
Joke of the Month
We have two winners this month. The first winner comes from Michael D. Hirsch, who happens to be our only reader in Israel. The second winner comes from The Leuthold Group’s Connie Schultz.
Looking Behind the “Household” Numbers
Are U.S. “Households” net equity sellers? We don’t think so!
October Mutual Fund Flows
U.S. mutual fund flow less bullish in October (may be seasonal).
Playing the Bounce Update
Running a fresh “Playing the Bounce” screen at month end netted quite a handful of new names, and a few deletions from our previous screen featured in the October Interim Memo.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by October performance.
Tactically Increasing REIT Exposure in Conventional Portfolio
REITs continually ranked this year among Most Attractive. After tactical additions, 15% now invested in REITs. Interest in these real estate proxies is definitely increasing, by both institutional and individual investors.
The Stock Market and the Economy: Lead and Lag Relationships
In past issues, we have postulated that the next major stock market decline would not precede an economic downturn as it typically has in the past. Rather, the relationship would be coincidental, with the stock market and the economy turning down at about the same time.
View from the North Country
Scarce on Wall Street: “SELL” recommendations. Why? Also, The Great American Weight Gain: How can the typical American really consume so much in a single year?
Year-End Cross Currents Start Early
While September was a surprisingly strong month, October was just confusing. Year-end cross currents seem to have started early this year. Major Trend Index now just barely in neutral territory with a ratio of 0.95.
Stock Market
- Year-End Cross Currents Start Early
- Looking Behind the “Household” Numbers
- October Mutual Fund Flows
- The Stock Market and the Economy: Lead and Lag Relationships
- Playing the Bounce Update
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
- Insurance…Life: Increasing Portfolio Holdings
- Energy…Natural Gas: Increasing Portfolio Holdings
- Tactically Increasing REIT Exposure in Conventional Portfolio
- Scanning the Markets