Green Book May 1996
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
Bond market retreated in April and early May as Q1 GDP came in well ahead of estimates, raising expectations that the Fed will tighten rather than ease. Longer term, yields could move toward 5%, if confidence in U.S. dollar is rebuilt via fiscal reform.
Buy California?...Added To Conventional Equity Portfolio
New 15% “Buy California” sector activated. Qualifying companies are required to generate 25% of revenues from California, however, our buy list focused on those generating 50% or more.
Estimating Current Stock Market Downside
Current studies show significant downside potential from current levels. Today's market valuation now more extreme than 1987's, and far above historical medians.
Joke of the Month
Good joke flow in April. Perhaps April Fool’s Day (National Economists Day) had something to do with this.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by April performance.
Summary View
U.S. market in a temporary new valuation era and reminiscent of last leg up in Tokyo stock market in late eighties. Driving force has been the public’s belief that you “can’t lose” with equity fund shares.
The 1996 Transition
April market showered investors with several interesting changes. Technology stocks recovered their sizzle as PC shipments came in better than expected and Internet buyout fever ran prices up. Secondary stocks scored a TKO.
View From The North Country
Increased emphasis and expanded coverage of Leuthold Group’s sector/industry work. Ten new sectors expected next month. Minnesota comes to Vegas with Lyle Berman’s Stratosphere and Evel Knutson, former daredevil Norwegian stock trader from Bagley, MN has some nasty things to say about the movie “Fargo”!
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Summary View
- The 1996 Transition
- Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
Bond market retreated in April and early May as Q1 GDP came in well ahead of estimates, raising expectations that the Fed will tighten rather than ease. Longer term, yields could move toward 5%, if confidence in U.S. dollar is rebuilt via fiscal reform.
Buy California?...Added To Conventional Equity Portfolio
New 15% “Buy California” sector activated. Qualifying companies are required to generate 25% of revenues from California, however, our buy list focused on those generating 50% or more.
Estimating Current Stock Market Downside
Current studies show significant downside potential from current levels. Today's market valuation now more extreme than 1987's, and far above historical medians.
Joke of the Month
Good joke flow in April. Perhaps April Fool’s Day (National Economists Day) had something to do with this.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
A review of the significant stock market positives and negatives as I currently see them. There are now five major positives and five major negatives.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by April performance.
Summary View
U.S. market in a temporary new valuation era and reminiscent of last leg up in Tokyo stock market in late eighties. Driving force has been the public’s belief that you “can’t lose” with equity fund shares.
The 1996 Transition
April market showered investors with several interesting changes. Technology stocks recovered their sizzle as PC shipments came in better than expected and Internet buyout fever ran prices up. Secondary stocks scored a TKO.
View From The North Country
Increased emphasis and expanded coverage of Leuthold Group’s sector/industry work. Ten new sectors expected next month. Minnesota comes to Vegas with Lyle Berman’s Stratosphere and Evel Knutson, former daredevil Norwegian stock trader from Bagley, MN has some nasty things to say about the movie “Fargo”!
Stock Market
- View From The North Country
- Summary View
- The 1996 Transition
- Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives