Green Book July 1996
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow, inflation should remain under control, and corporate earnings momentum should gradually fade.
Clean Energy: Now Employed in Both Portfolios
“Clean Energy” is being added to the Conventional Equity Portfolio in early July as an 11% holding. After underperforming since 1993, the sector may be poised for a take-off. There is a good relative strength bottom in place.
Estimating Current Stock Market Downside
Leuthold current studies show significant downside potential from current levels. Today’s market valuation now more extreme than 1987’s, and far above historical medians.
Joke of the Month
The winner comes from Dale Robinson, an old friend and former college roommate now living in Placentia, California. I am dedicating it to Pete Larson, an often hot stock picker with Fleet Investment in Hartford who also happens to be Swedish.
Major Trend Index Fades to Negative Status
Factors affecting shift in Major Trend: fade in market momentum...decline of cash flow into U.S. focus equity funds...vast new supply of equities. Despite modifications to help adjust for this “new era” environment, it wasn’t enough to offset current negatives.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by second quarter performance.
Speculative Fever Subsides (For Now)
In recent weeks, the speculative nature of the market has cooled some, and the flow into aggressive or emerging growth funds has subsided.
View From The North Country
What might change public stock market psychology? A false signal: gold stocks did not serve as a valid lead indicator for the metal in the first five months of1996. Observations from the UK: Investors still very underweighted in U.S. stocks but attitude toward U.S. market fairly positive.
What Has Changed Since February 2, 1996?
Comparison between February 2, 1996 Major Trend (when we last went positive) and today’s calculation shows the shift primarily driven by Economic/Monetary/Inflation (higher interest rates), and by the Supply/Demand category.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Fades to Negative Status
- What Has Changed Since February 2, 1996?
- Speculative Fever Subsides (For Now)
- View From The North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
Bonds expected to outperform stocks over next 6-12 months...economy should slow, inflation should remain under control, and corporate earnings momentum should gradually fade.
Clean Energy: Now Employed in Both Portfolios
“Clean Energy” is being added to the Conventional Equity Portfolio in early July as an 11% holding. After underperforming since 1993, the sector may be poised for a take-off. There is a good relative strength bottom in place.
Estimating Current Stock Market Downside
Leuthold current studies show significant downside potential from current levels. Today’s market valuation now more extreme than 1987’s, and far above historical medians.
Joke of the Month
The winner comes from Dale Robinson, an old friend and former college roommate now living in Placentia, California. I am dedicating it to Pete Larson, an often hot stock picker with Fleet Investment in Hartford who also happens to be Swedish.
Major Trend Index Fades to Negative Status
Factors affecting shift in Major Trend: fade in market momentum...decline of cash flow into U.S. focus equity funds...vast new supply of equities. Despite modifications to help adjust for this “new era” environment, it wasn’t enough to offset current negatives.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundowns for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by second quarter performance.
Speculative Fever Subsides (For Now)
In recent weeks, the speculative nature of the market has cooled some, and the flow into aggressive or emerging growth funds has subsided.
View From The North Country
What might change public stock market psychology? A false signal: gold stocks did not serve as a valid lead indicator for the metal in the first five months of1996. Observations from the UK: Investors still very underweighted in U.S. stocks but attitude toward U.S. market fairly positive.
What Has Changed Since February 2, 1996?
Comparison between February 2, 1996 Major Trend (when we last went positive) and today’s calculation shows the shift primarily driven by Economic/Monetary/Inflation (higher interest rates), and by the Supply/Demand category.
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Fades to Negative Status
- What Has Changed Since February 2, 1996?
- Speculative Fever Subsides (For Now)
- View From The North Country