Green Book February 1996
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Featured Articles
1995 Dreams and Nightmares...A Look at What Might Have Been
With perfect hindsight, one could have produced a gain of almost 70% by investing in 1995’s 25 biggest institutional stock winners.
Bond Market Summary
Bond market rally stalled out in January...concern over the recent spike in gold prices, political uncertainty, and upcoming treasury auction, seemed to outweigh the weak economic news. Bonds seem over-extended on a short term basis.
Catching a Falling Knife?...Buying the Semi’s
Basically, things are still pretty healthy for the chip makers. This industry has not fallen apart, it’s just not growing at the unsustainably high rate of the past several years.
Fearless Forecasts…1996
Frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy. Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions appearing the January issue.
It’s A Big Cap Market
No January effect this year. It was a large cap show, with the DJIA (+5.4%) outperforming 85%-90% of stock groups and sectors for the month and the S&P trouncing about 70%.
Leuthold Major Trend Index: Revisions Are Overdue
Major Trend Index modification will be made this week...weights of two mutual fund inflow components will be doubled due to their significance.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
During the month of January, two major stock market positive factors became more positive, three remained about the same, and one became less positive. Among the four negative factors, all four became more negative.
Playing the Bounce Update: UGH!
This was the worst year ever for this strategy. In the previous two years, results did not live up to historical expectations. But this year, results were terrible.
Real Estate Segmented As Separate Asset Class
REITs removed from equity portfolio and now occupy separate real estate asset class. High equity valuations and moderate upside bond potential make real estate an appealing long term play.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by January's performance.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Fearless Forecasts…1996
- It’s A Big Cap Market
- Playing the Bounce Update: UGH!
- Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
- Leuthold Major Trend Index: Revisions Are Overdue
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
1995 Dreams and Nightmares...A Look at What Might Have Been
With perfect hindsight, one could have produced a gain of almost 70% by investing in 1995’s 25 biggest institutional stock winners.
Bond Market Summary
Bond market rally stalled out in January...concern over the recent spike in gold prices, political uncertainty, and upcoming treasury auction, seemed to outweigh the weak economic news. Bonds seem over-extended on a short term basis.
Catching a Falling Knife?...Buying the Semi’s
Basically, things are still pretty healthy for the chip makers. This industry has not fallen apart, it’s just not growing at the unsustainably high rate of the past several years.
Fearless Forecasts…1996
Frivolous flights of foolishness and fantasy. Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions appearing the January issue.
It’s A Big Cap Market
No January effect this year. It was a large cap show, with the DJIA (+5.4%) outperforming 85%-90% of stock groups and sectors for the month and the S&P trouncing about 70%.
Leuthold Major Trend Index: Revisions Are Overdue
Major Trend Index modification will be made this week...weights of two mutual fund inflow components will be doubled due to their significance.
Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
During the month of January, two major stock market positive factors became more positive, three remained about the same, and one became less positive. Among the four negative factors, all four became more negative.
Playing the Bounce Update: UGH!
This was the worst year ever for this strategy. In the previous two years, results did not live up to historical expectations. But this year, results were terrible.
Real Estate Segmented As Separate Asset Class
REITs removed from equity portfolio and now occupy separate real estate asset class. High equity valuations and moderate upside bond potential make real estate an appealing long term play.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by January's performance.
Stock Market
- Fearless Forecasts…1996
- It’s A Big Cap Market
- Playing the Bounce Update: UGH!
- Major Stock Market Positives and Negatives
- Leuthold Major Trend Index: Revisions Are Overdue