Green Book December 1996
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
Bond rally has further to go in 1997 (6% or lower) if nervous equity investors seek safer havens, economy slows, and foreign appetite for U.S. Fixed Income remains. U.S. yields remain relatively high.
Buying the Semiconductors
Semiconductors being added to both portfolios in early December. Reasons for big jump in Semiconductors ranking are explained which should help readers better understand disciplines and factors in SS Scoring System.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
For the month of November, net inflows into U.S. focus funds are estimated at $14.4 billion, up 26% from $11.4 billion in October and above the $13.1 billion of November 1995.
In “Never Never Land”
It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term it may go higher.
Joke of the Month
The big Blue Ribbon this month goes to Jeanette Reddish Scollard, proprietor of SCS Marketing in La Jolla California and Forum Manager of SUCCESS on line. Yes, it is a long joke, but stay with it. It is a real winner.
Playing the Bounce Update
Fresh tax bounce list. Slim pickings, only 28 qualifiers. Most distressed equities have already bounced too far off recent lows per our discipline (especially the technology issues).
Scanning the Markets
Technology was a big winner in November, with 8 of the top 20 sectors being technology related.
The Lagging Small Caps
Weighted S&P 500 outperforming unweighted counterpart. Typical NASDAQ stock up 6% year to date, compared to +23% for Index (10 biggest NASDAQ stocks up average of 45%).
Today’s Mutual Fund Investor Attitudes
Lou Harris recent poll indicates mutual fund investors’ expectations are unrealistically high and many would sell if market declines.
View from the North Country
Excerpts from Leo Melamed’s new book. Former Chairman of the "Merc” (home of S&P futures), gives insider view of 1987 stock market crash. Also, my first annual letter to mutual fund shareholders is reprinted here. You want to know what I really think about the stock market?...Here it is.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- In “Never Never Land”
- Today’s Mutual Fund Investor Attitudes
- Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
- The Lagging Small Caps
- Playing the Bounce Update
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
Bond rally has further to go in 1997 (6% or lower) if nervous equity investors seek safer havens, economy slows, and foreign appetite for U.S. Fixed Income remains. U.S. yields remain relatively high.
Buying the Semiconductors
Semiconductors being added to both portfolios in early December. Reasons for big jump in Semiconductors ranking are explained which should help readers better understand disciplines and factors in SS Scoring System.
Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
For the month of November, net inflows into U.S. focus funds are estimated at $14.4 billion, up 26% from $11.4 billion in October and above the $13.1 billion of November 1995.
In “Never Never Land”
It’s “Never Never Land”...stock market now above all past valuation extremes. Ultimately, a big bear market is out there, but shorter term it may go higher.
Joke of the Month
The big Blue Ribbon this month goes to Jeanette Reddish Scollard, proprietor of SCS Marketing in La Jolla California and Forum Manager of SUCCESS on line. Yes, it is a long joke, but stay with it. It is a real winner.
Playing the Bounce Update
Fresh tax bounce list. Slim pickings, only 28 qualifiers. Most distressed equities have already bounced too far off recent lows per our discipline (especially the technology issues).
Scanning the Markets
Technology was a big winner in November, with 8 of the top 20 sectors being technology related.
The Lagging Small Caps
Weighted S&P 500 outperforming unweighted counterpart. Typical NASDAQ stock up 6% year to date, compared to +23% for Index (10 biggest NASDAQ stocks up average of 45%).
Today’s Mutual Fund Investor Attitudes
Lou Harris recent poll indicates mutual fund investors’ expectations are unrealistically high and many would sell if market declines.
View from the North Country
Excerpts from Leo Melamed’s new book. Former Chairman of the "Merc” (home of S&P futures), gives insider view of 1987 stock market crash. Also, my first annual letter to mutual fund shareholders is reprinted here. You want to know what I really think about the stock market?...Here it is.
Stock Market
- In “Never Never Land”
- Today’s Mutual Fund Investor Attitudes
- Equity Fund Flows…Short Term
- The Lagging Small Caps
- Playing the Bounce Update
- View from the North Country