Green Book June 1995
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Featured Articles
A Message in the Bond Market Madness?
The equity crowd is now having some second thoughts: What is good for bonds may not be good for stocks.
Bond Market Summary
Powerful bond rally in May and early June propels bond performance to move ahead of stocks year to date.
Does A Steady Earnings Pattern In Itself Lead To Superior Stock Price Performance?
At this point, we do not see any clear signs that historical earnings consistency leads to outperformance relative to inconsistent earnings companies.
Is It 1987 OR A “New Era”?
It could be different this time...For a while. Equities at 24%—below normal minimums... Valuations still look excessive...Major Trend still negative. Market still going up.
Joke of the Month
Joke flow, at least in terms of quantity, was much better in May. However, controversy has erupted as one of our readers is protesting last month’s Joke of the Month winner.
Monitoring Mutual Fund Cash Flows
Mutual fund investors less enthusiastic…Redemptions about matched inflows at the end of May. Supply of equities is starting to build, while cash holdings in funds is diminishing.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by year to date performance.
Today’s Stock Market Lifeblood: Mutual Fund Flows
The Leuthold Group has been intensifying its fund flow analytical work because we believe it is now the most important U.S. stock market internal factor.
Updating Our Earnings “Catch Up” Model…Spectacular Earnings Growth, Or Just A “Normal” Return To Trendline?
Corporate earnings growth was well below the trendline during the period of 1988-1993. Overall, earnings growth is now moving back in line with long term trends.
View from the North Country
Check out the new issue of The Numbers Game for a list of 120 companies with “Red Flags” which could potentially lead to earnings disappointments. Reminders and insights from one of Wall Street’s best: Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterioo & Company.
We Are Frustrated…And So Are Most of You
Frustration Index reaches new high!
What Is Wrong with the Major Trend Index: Some Current Thoughts
At this point, it’s quite disappointing as to how the Major Trend Index work has functioned, especially in the past several months. It appears that too much lead time may have crept into the overall discipline.
Worth Noting
T-bonds are now clearly in the lead in the 1995 Performance Derby. Do dividend yields matter? Polling the pros in Baltimore and Boston.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- We Are Frustrated…And So Are Most of You
- A Message in the Bond Market Madness?
- Is It 1987 OR A “New Era”?
- What Is Wrong with the Major Trend Index: Some Current Thoughts
- Worth Noting
- Today’s Stock Market Lifeblood: Mutual Fund Flows
- Monitoring Mutual Fund Cash Flows
- View from the North Country
- Updating Our Earnings “Catch Up” Model…Spectacular Earnings Growth, Or Just A “Normal” Return To Trendline?
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
A Message in the Bond Market Madness?
The equity crowd is now having some second thoughts: What is good for bonds may not be good for stocks.
Bond Market Summary
Powerful bond rally in May and early June propels bond performance to move ahead of stocks year to date.
Does A Steady Earnings Pattern In Itself Lead To Superior Stock Price Performance?
At this point, we do not see any clear signs that historical earnings consistency leads to outperformance relative to inconsistent earnings companies.
Is It 1987 OR A “New Era”?
It could be different this time...For a while. Equities at 24%—below normal minimums... Valuations still look excessive...Major Trend still negative. Market still going up.
Joke of the Month
Joke flow, at least in terms of quantity, was much better in May. However, controversy has erupted as one of our readers is protesting last month’s Joke of the Month winner.
Monitoring Mutual Fund Cash Flows
Mutual fund investors less enthusiastic…Redemptions about matched inflows at the end of May. Supply of equities is starting to build, while cash holdings in funds is diminishing.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by year to date performance.
Today’s Stock Market Lifeblood: Mutual Fund Flows
The Leuthold Group has been intensifying its fund flow analytical work because we believe it is now the most important U.S. stock market internal factor.
Updating Our Earnings “Catch Up” Model…Spectacular Earnings Growth, Or Just A “Normal” Return To Trendline?
Corporate earnings growth was well below the trendline during the period of 1988-1993. Overall, earnings growth is now moving back in line with long term trends.
View from the North Country
Check out the new issue of The Numbers Game for a list of 120 companies with “Red Flags” which could potentially lead to earnings disappointments. Reminders and insights from one of Wall Street’s best: Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterioo & Company.
We Are Frustrated…And So Are Most of You
Frustration Index reaches new high!
What Is Wrong with the Major Trend Index: Some Current Thoughts
At this point, it’s quite disappointing as to how the Major Trend Index work has functioned, especially in the past several months. It appears that too much lead time may have crept into the overall discipline.
Worth Noting
T-bonds are now clearly in the lead in the 1995 Performance Derby. Do dividend yields matter? Polling the pros in Baltimore and Boston.
Stock Market
- We Are Frustrated…And So Are Most of You
- A Message in the Bond Market Madness?
- Is It 1987 OR A “New Era”?
- What Is Wrong with the Major Trend Index: Some Current Thoughts
- Worth Noting
- Today’s Stock Market Lifeblood: Mutual Fund Flows
- Monitoring Mutual Fund Cash Flows
- View from the North Country
- Updating Our Earnings “Catch Up” Model…Spectacular Earnings Growth, Or Just A “Normal” Return To Trendline?