Green Book November 1994
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Featured Articles
An Invisible Bear Market?
Has this been an "invisible bear market” with internal rolling corrections in stocks, groups and sectors? A new index from Ned Davis shows this is probably not the case.
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.
Joke of the Month
This comes from Michael Long, Rockbridge Partners. Rockbridge is a Charlotte North Carolina limited partnership with a strong focus on short selling. I think even the firm’s address is sinister (Black Sycamore Drive).
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
Bond market decline may be in final stages, but stock market can still fall 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.
Playing the Bounce Update
Last year’s bounce was pretty feeble and we have reservations about this year as well...we will not be playing the “Bounce” yet, maybe later this year.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by October performance.
Supply/Demand Considerations
New equity offerings now about matching net inflows into U.S. focus equity mutual funds. Still no evidence of net redemptions for U.S. focus equity funds.
View From the North Country
Economic growth and stock market performance don’t go hand in hand - the stock market looks ahead. Don’t be surprised by more wage irrflation. The AdvantHedge short selling program is updated and explained because readers have expressed a growing interest (maybe it’s the market).
Yes, Virginia, Consumers, Investors and Retailing Stocks Are Aligned. It’s Time for a “Retailing Resurgence”!
Consumer confidence is high, the economy is solid. We do not think Christmas 1994 is yet reflected in many retailing stocks. Look at this like a retailing “bounce" opportunity.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Remains Negative
- Supply/Demand Considerations
- An Invisible Bear Market?
- Evaluating Today's Conflicting Sentiment Measures
- View From the North Country
- Playing the Bounce Update
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
An Invisible Bear Market?
Has this been an "invisible bear market” with internal rolling corrections in stocks, groups and sectors? A new index from Ned Davis shows this is probably not the case.
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative on a cyclical basis, but long T-bond six month risk seen only as 8.25%-8.50% level, with 12 month risk at 8.50% level.
Joke of the Month
This comes from Michael Long, Rockbridge Partners. Rockbridge is a Charlotte North Carolina limited partnership with a strong focus on short selling. I think even the firm’s address is sinister (Black Sycamore Drive).
Major Trend Index Remains Negative
Bond market decline may be in final stages, but stock market can still fall 25%, even if bonds stabilize in coming months.
Playing the Bounce Update
Last year’s bounce was pretty feeble and we have reservations about this year as well...we will not be playing the “Bounce” yet, maybe later this year.
Scanning the Markets
Performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by October performance.
Supply/Demand Considerations
New equity offerings now about matching net inflows into U.S. focus equity mutual funds. Still no evidence of net redemptions for U.S. focus equity funds.
View From the North Country
Economic growth and stock market performance don’t go hand in hand - the stock market looks ahead. Don’t be surprised by more wage irrflation. The AdvantHedge short selling program is updated and explained because readers have expressed a growing interest (maybe it’s the market).
Yes, Virginia, Consumers, Investors and Retailing Stocks Are Aligned. It’s Time for a “Retailing Resurgence”!
Consumer confidence is high, the economy is solid. We do not think Christmas 1994 is yet reflected in many retailing stocks. Look at this like a retailing “bounce" opportunity.
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Remains Negative
- Supply/Demand Considerations
- An Invisible Bear Market?
- Evaluating Today's Conflicting Sentiment Measures
- View From the North Country
- Playing the Bounce Update