Green Book February 1994
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Featured Articles
1994 New Supply: Less Than Expected (So Far)
Don't expect to see net mutual fund redemptions yet. Public still expected to buy on weakness.
A Strong Economy and a Weak Stock Market?
The stock market often underperforms when the economy is strong and earnings are surging. It performs best when real GDP is negative and earnings are declining.
Building a "Catch Up" Future Earnings Model
Corporate downsizing related write-off’s, combined with significant accounting write-offs have thrown a monkey wrench into many earnings models, necessitating adjustment for recurring/non-recurring items. ROE/book value models have been rendered virtually useless. Model revisions are needed.
Fearless Forecasts....1994
Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions that appeared in the January issue. However, in the past, these "Fearless Forecasts" have, at times, been closer to the mark than the conventional predictions.
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative for bond market.
Joke of the Month
Joke flow is slowing down. Take note readers, if things don't improve, we might have to resort to stupid Norwegian jokes.
Major Trend Index Improves Significantly In January
Major Trend Index moved now comfortably back in positive territory. 96 point decline February 4th is probably setting up a good tactical buying opportunity.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by January's performance.
View From the North Country
A reader's case against higher gasoline taxes, followed by my case for consumption taxes and a membership pitch for The Concord Coalition. Did you watch the 56 commercial spots during the Super Bowl? Do you recall what these advertising works of art were selling?
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Improves Significantly In January
- 1994 New Supply: Less Than Expected (So Far)
- A Strong Economy and a Weak Stock Market?
- Building a "Catch Up" Future Earnings Model
- View From the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
1994 New Supply: Less Than Expected (So Far)
Don't expect to see net mutual fund redemptions yet. Public still expected to buy on weakness.
A Strong Economy and a Weak Stock Market?
The stock market often underperforms when the economy is strong and earnings are surging. It performs best when real GDP is negative and earnings are declining.
Building a "Catch Up" Future Earnings Model
Corporate downsizing related write-off’s, combined with significant accounting write-offs have thrown a monkey wrench into many earnings models, necessitating adjustment for recurring/non-recurring items. ROE/book value models have been rendered virtually useless. Model revisions are needed.
Fearless Forecasts....1994
Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions that appeared in the January issue. However, in the past, these "Fearless Forecasts" have, at times, been closer to the mark than the conventional predictions.
Inside the Bond Market
Weight of the evidence discipline remains negative for bond market.
Joke of the Month
Joke flow is slowing down. Take note readers, if things don't improve, we might have to resort to stupid Norwegian jokes.
Major Trend Index Improves Significantly In January
Major Trend Index moved now comfortably back in positive territory. 96 point decline February 4th is probably setting up a good tactical buying opportunity.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by January's performance.
View From the North Country
A reader's case against higher gasoline taxes, followed by my case for consumption taxes and a membership pitch for The Concord Coalition. Did you watch the 56 commercial spots during the Super Bowl? Do you recall what these advertising works of art were selling?
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Improves Significantly In January
- 1994 New Supply: Less Than Expected (So Far)
- A Strong Economy and a Weak Stock Market?
- Building a "Catch Up" Future Earnings Model
- View From the North Country