Green Book November 1993
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
Bond market bulls experienced a brief chill in mid-October. After starting the month on a strong note, most bond categories retreated for the remainder of the month as better economic news began to trickle in.
Bonds: Guaranteed Long Term Underperformance???
Time for an attitude adjustment? We have seen some fat returns on long fixed income securities since rates peaked in 1981. What can we expect from bonds in the future? To help answer this question we look at three sample bonds using a 5 and 10 year risk/reward framework.
Global Mania (U.S. Induced)
Savvy U.S. professional investors have been buying foreign stocks for a number of years now. Somewhat more recently, pension funds have been focusing on foreign diversification. Now, in 1993 mutual fund investors have become increasingly enamored with foreign stocks.
Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros in Boston
What a difference a city makes (or a month, or 150 miles). Boston is much more positive about the stock market than New York according to last's month poll. Over a 1 year time horizon, we went from 6% "Bullish'' in New York to 33% "Bullish" in Boston.
Joke of the Month
As noted, the October issue of this publication had no "Joke of the Month" winner. Joke flow was terrible in September. But in October there was a veritable joke avalanche. Unfortunately, the winner I personally selected is not printable.
Playing the Bounce Update
This issue, we have revised and updated our current "Bounce” list as well as our "Bounce Favorites". Some of last month's qualifiers have appreciated right off of the list. Some new candidates appear on the list as well, so you'll want to check it out.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by year to date performance.
Slight Deterioration, But Major Trend Index Still Positive
As of October 29 the Major Trend had deteriorated to a level of 1.10. Despite this small deterioration, the Major Trend remains in positive ground, so both models will continue to maintain their more aggressive equity exposure.
View from the North Country
Long Term Investment Perspective...U.S. Equity Returns Over Next Decade Will Likely Be Below Average...Watch For A Derivative Debacle...ATM Investing
Worth Noting
Last issue, this publication focused on the current institutional fixation on earnings momentum and earnings surprise in terms of stock selection and stock retention. Ultimately this investment strategy will be over exploited, but when?
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Slight Deterioration, But Major Trend Index Still Positive
- Worth Noting
- Global Mania (U.S. Induced)
- Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros in Boston
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
Bond market bulls experienced a brief chill in mid-October. After starting the month on a strong note, most bond categories retreated for the remainder of the month as better economic news began to trickle in.
Bonds: Guaranteed Long Term Underperformance???
Time for an attitude adjustment? We have seen some fat returns on long fixed income securities since rates peaked in 1981. What can we expect from bonds in the future? To help answer this question we look at three sample bonds using a 5 and 10 year risk/reward framework.
Global Mania (U.S. Induced)
Savvy U.S. professional investors have been buying foreign stocks for a number of years now. Somewhat more recently, pension funds have been focusing on foreign diversification. Now, in 1993 mutual fund investors have become increasingly enamored with foreign stocks.
Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros in Boston
What a difference a city makes (or a month, or 150 miles). Boston is much more positive about the stock market than New York according to last's month poll. Over a 1 year time horizon, we went from 6% "Bullish'' in New York to 33% "Bullish" in Boston.
Joke of the Month
As noted, the October issue of this publication had no "Joke of the Month" winner. Joke flow was terrible in September. But in October there was a veritable joke avalanche. Unfortunately, the winner I personally selected is not printable.
Playing the Bounce Update
This issue, we have revised and updated our current "Bounce” list as well as our "Bounce Favorites". Some of last month's qualifiers have appreciated right off of the list. Some new candidates appear on the list as well, so you'll want to check it out.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for The Leuthold Group's equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by year to date performance.
Slight Deterioration, But Major Trend Index Still Positive
As of October 29 the Major Trend had deteriorated to a level of 1.10. Despite this small deterioration, the Major Trend remains in positive ground, so both models will continue to maintain their more aggressive equity exposure.
View from the North Country
Long Term Investment Perspective...U.S. Equity Returns Over Next Decade Will Likely Be Below Average...Watch For A Derivative Debacle...ATM Investing
Worth Noting
Last issue, this publication focused on the current institutional fixation on earnings momentum and earnings surprise in terms of stock selection and stock retention. Ultimately this investment strategy will be over exploited, but when?
Stock Market
- Slight Deterioration, But Major Trend Index Still Positive
- Worth Noting
- Global Mania (U.S. Induced)
- Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros in Boston
- View from the North Country