Green Book March 1993
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Featured Articles
Back On Track
So far, 1993 has been difficult year for most aggressive growth managers, especially those tilted toward health care issues.
Bonds Through The Roof
There were two mighty explosions in lower Manhattan in February. One was horrible and the other wonderful, at least for the banks and brokers who had loaded up on bonds and notes. However, from this publication's standpoint, both explosions were pretty much viewed as horrible. (See comments later in this section.)
Joke of the Month
Good joke flow in February. We don't have room to print them all and I forgot some. Here are the two runners up. They both seem to contain an underlying element of hostility. Considering the sources, I am not at all surprised. The first comes from Dick Perkins, Perkins Capital Mgmt., and the second comes from Harry Jones, strictly an amateur golfer, but a professional gin rummy player.
Portfolio Sector Review
This publication invests in the equity market on a sector basis, but many of the sectors employed are somewhat unorthodox. This approach has worked very well for us over the years. Our equity model has outperformed the S&P 500 over 70% of the time in the last 21 years. 1992, as a whole, was not a good year for our equity model, but it appears we are back in the groove. In the last four months, our equity portfolio is up 12%, compared to a 6% gain for the S&P 500. Year to date, our portfolio is up 4% compared to 2% for the S&P 500.
Scanning The Markets
The table on the next page is a performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by February 1993 performance.
Sorry, Major Trend Index Shifts Back To "Negative"
After ten weeks of borderline "Neutral” readings, our weight of the evidence Major Trend Index shifted back down into the "NEGATIVE" zone with the March 1 calculation. So what did the market do the next day? It scored a 45 point gain in the DJIA, with the other market averages up a little more than 1%. At this point, with the Index back in "Negative” territory, we will probably do more defensive selling if this new surge carries significantly higher.
Steven C. Leuthold: Fundamentally Technical
Back in December, Steve Leuthold was interviewed by Thom Hartle, editor of Stocks and Commodities. The following is reprinted from the March 1993 issue of the magazine. Some readers may be surprised to learn the origins of The Leuthold Group were "technical" not fundamental. Some may also be surprised that our "Group leader", an avid student of long term economic and market history, is also a short term trading speculator.
Note: Leuthold's picture is somewhat dated, taken back in the days before the beard turned gray. We believe the color change is the direct result of this commodity trading.
Stock Market Performance In Perspective
The histograms in the following pages are taken from the January 1993 edition on Benchmarks.
View From The North Country
When President Clinton presented his economic package of proposals I happened to be out of the country, under a palm tree, reading Jimmy Buffet's first novel "Where is Joe Merchant?"
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Portfolio Sector Review
- Back On Track
- View From The North Country
- Steven C. Leuthold: Fundamentally Technical
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Major Trend
At Random
Back On Track
So far, 1993 has been difficult year for most aggressive growth managers, especially those tilted toward health care issues.
Bonds Through The Roof
There were two mighty explosions in lower Manhattan in February. One was horrible and the other wonderful, at least for the banks and brokers who had loaded up on bonds and notes. However, from this publication's standpoint, both explosions were pretty much viewed as horrible. (See comments later in this section.)
Joke of the Month
Good joke flow in February. We don't have room to print them all and I forgot some. Here are the two runners up. They both seem to contain an underlying element of hostility. Considering the sources, I am not at all surprised. The first comes from Dick Perkins, Perkins Capital Mgmt., and the second comes from Harry Jones, strictly an amateur golfer, but a professional gin rummy player.
Portfolio Sector Review
This publication invests in the equity market on a sector basis, but many of the sectors employed are somewhat unorthodox. This approach has worked very well for us over the years. Our equity model has outperformed the S&P 500 over 70% of the time in the last 21 years. 1992, as a whole, was not a good year for our equity model, but it appears we are back in the groove. In the last four months, our equity portfolio is up 12%, compared to a 6% gain for the S&P 500. Year to date, our portfolio is up 4% compared to 2% for the S&P 500.
Scanning The Markets
The table on the next page is a performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by February 1993 performance.
Sorry, Major Trend Index Shifts Back To "Negative"
After ten weeks of borderline "Neutral” readings, our weight of the evidence Major Trend Index shifted back down into the "NEGATIVE" zone with the March 1 calculation. So what did the market do the next day? It scored a 45 point gain in the DJIA, with the other market averages up a little more than 1%. At this point, with the Index back in "Negative” territory, we will probably do more defensive selling if this new surge carries significantly higher.
Steven C. Leuthold: Fundamentally Technical
Back in December, Steve Leuthold was interviewed by Thom Hartle, editor of Stocks and Commodities. The following is reprinted from the March 1993 issue of the magazine. Some readers may be surprised to learn the origins of The Leuthold Group were "technical" not fundamental. Some may also be surprised that our "Group leader", an avid student of long term economic and market history, is also a short term trading speculator.
Note: Leuthold's picture is somewhat dated, taken back in the days before the beard turned gray. We believe the color change is the direct result of this commodity trading.
Stock Market Performance In Perspective
The histograms in the following pages are taken from the January 1993 edition on Benchmarks.
View From The North Country
When President Clinton presented his economic package of proposals I happened to be out of the country, under a palm tree, reading Jimmy Buffet's first novel "Where is Joe Merchant?"
Stock Market
- Portfolio Sector Review
- Back On Track
- View From The North Country
- Steven C. Leuthold: Fundamentally Technical