Green Book April 1993
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Featured Articles
A Most Dangerous Game
Portfolio managers themselves are increasingly cautious towards the stock market, with the great majority very concerned about the Clinton economic program and very recently shaken by the Phillip Morris debacle.
Bond Market Summary
Corporates managed a gain in March but Treasuries were weak near month end. Developing an “unbiased” Bond Market Trend Index based on a list of factors that we feel are important in determining the overall health of the long U.S. bond market.
Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros (and Cons)s
In March, polls were taken in Portland, Seattle, Denver and Los Angeles respectively. We recently incorporated a new question in the survey, requesting a projection of S&P 500 annualized total returns over the next 10 years. The responses have been quite interesting.
Japanese Global Companies
A month ago, we noted that our long term momentum work indicated the Tokyo stock market might be in a bottoming process and if this work was correct, these Japanese Globals (all with U.S. ADRs) could be great buys.
Joke of the Month
I can already hear the protests from Seattle to New York, but this month the blue ribbon goes to Jen Leuthold, who just happens to be my daughter-in-law.
Major Trend Index More Negative
The Major Trend Index deteriorated in March. This calculation was done prior to the Phillip Morris debacle. I'm rather sure the upcoming April 5 calculation will not be any better.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by first quarter 1993 performance.
The Message of Phillip Morris
Six months ago, this stock was at the top of most institutions' core holding list. Smashed and broken, it's now a major portfolio embarrassment. Once again, the often forgotten message from the past echoes: No Growth Is Permanent.
The Oil Patch
Yes, we also should have bought these last month. The sector moved up another 5% in March.
View from the North Country
In terms of outstanding investment returns from U.S. markets, the last 10 years have been close to unprecedented but the next decade in this business won't be so easy. This is what our historical research and common sense tells us.
We Like the Drugs....But Not Yet
Back in August of 1990, this publication issued a warning, “Don't Get Too High on Drugs”. This five page article concluded that ethical drugs were “potentially one of the most vulnerable sectors in the entire market.” In retrospect, this anti-drug warning has proven to be one of our better calls.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index More Negative
- A Most Dangerous Game
- The Message of Phillip Morris
- Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros (and Cons)s
- View from the North Country
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
A Most Dangerous Game
Portfolio managers themselves are increasingly cautious towards the stock market, with the great majority very concerned about the Clinton economic program and very recently shaken by the Phillip Morris debacle.
Bond Market Summary
Corporates managed a gain in March but Treasuries were weak near month end. Developing an “unbiased” Bond Market Trend Index based on a list of factors that we feel are important in determining the overall health of the long U.S. bond market.
Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros (and Cons)s
In March, polls were taken in Portland, Seattle, Denver and Los Angeles respectively. We recently incorporated a new question in the survey, requesting a projection of S&P 500 annualized total returns over the next 10 years. The responses have been quite interesting.
Japanese Global Companies
A month ago, we noted that our long term momentum work indicated the Tokyo stock market might be in a bottoming process and if this work was correct, these Japanese Globals (all with U.S. ADRs) could be great buys.
Joke of the Month
I can already hear the protests from Seattle to New York, but this month the blue ribbon goes to Jen Leuthold, who just happens to be my daughter-in-law.
Major Trend Index More Negative
The Major Trend Index deteriorated in March. This calculation was done prior to the Phillip Morris debacle. I'm rather sure the upcoming April 5 calculation will not be any better.
Scanning the Markets
A performance rundown for Leuthold equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by first quarter 1993 performance.
The Message of Phillip Morris
Six months ago, this stock was at the top of most institutions' core holding list. Smashed and broken, it's now a major portfolio embarrassment. Once again, the often forgotten message from the past echoes: No Growth Is Permanent.
The Oil Patch
Yes, we also should have bought these last month. The sector moved up another 5% in March.
View from the North Country
In terms of outstanding investment returns from U.S. markets, the last 10 years have been close to unprecedented but the next decade in this business won't be so easy. This is what our historical research and common sense tells us.
We Like the Drugs....But Not Yet
Back in August of 1990, this publication issued a warning, “Don't Get Too High on Drugs”. This five page article concluded that ethical drugs were “potentially one of the most vulnerable sectors in the entire market.” In retrospect, this anti-drug warning has proven to be one of our better calls.
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index More Negative
- A Most Dangerous Game
- The Message of Phillip Morris
- Investor Attitudes: Polling the Pros (and Cons)s
- View from the North Country