Green Book July 1992
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
June was a rather steady dull month in the bond market but there was a pre-4th of July explosion on the upside as bond market grave dancers cheered the stunning jump in unemployment.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
With the Major Trend Index still negative, we remain cowards as far as the U.S. equity market is concerned. It probably takes a brave (or foolish) investor to aggressively buy stocks at current valuation levels with the economic expansion now in doubt.
Polling the Pros: The Boston Bruins
In June, polls were taken among our Boston clients. The results were about the most bearish we have seen since these polls were initiated back in early 1991.
Scanning the Markets
The DJIA managed to score a 2.6% gain in the second quarter and the S&P 500 edged up 1.1%. But for most managers, it was tough sledding, especially for the heroes of 1992.
The Current Environment
Today the unexpectedly bad unemployment numbers were released. The Fed immediately announced an almost panicky half point cut in the discount rate. The economic recovery may not be for real.
View from the North Country
The Ross Perot Factor...A New Hero Streaks Across The Political Heavens... Let’s Screw the Kids (Government Generosity for the Elderly)...U. S. Cheap Labor?
When Do We Get the “Big One”?
A client asked if I thought the market might be about ready for another one of those super bear markets. Well, predicting bear markets is somewhat akin to predicting earthquakes. And, like the “big one” in California, we are very sure it will happen sometime, but nobody really knows when.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
- The Current Environment
- Polling the Pros: The Boston Bruins
- View from the North Country
- When Do We Get the “Big One”?
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
June was a rather steady dull month in the bond market but there was a pre-4th of July explosion on the upside as bond market grave dancers cheered the stunning jump in unemployment.
Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
With the Major Trend Index still negative, we remain cowards as far as the U.S. equity market is concerned. It probably takes a brave (or foolish) investor to aggressively buy stocks at current valuation levels with the economic expansion now in doubt.
Polling the Pros: The Boston Bruins
In June, polls were taken among our Boston clients. The results were about the most bearish we have seen since these polls were initiated back in early 1991.
Scanning the Markets
The DJIA managed to score a 2.6% gain in the second quarter and the S&P 500 edged up 1.1%. But for most managers, it was tough sledding, especially for the heroes of 1992.
The Current Environment
Today the unexpectedly bad unemployment numbers were released. The Fed immediately announced an almost panicky half point cut in the discount rate. The economic recovery may not be for real.
View from the North Country
The Ross Perot Factor...A New Hero Streaks Across The Political Heavens... Let’s Screw the Kids (Government Generosity for the Elderly)...U. S. Cheap Labor?
When Do We Get the “Big One”?
A client asked if I thought the market might be about ready for another one of those super bear markets. Well, predicting bear markets is somewhat akin to predicting earthquakes. And, like the “big one” in California, we are very sure it will happen sometime, but nobody really knows when.
Stock Market
- Major Trend Index Remains “Negative”
- The Current Environment
- Polling the Pros: The Boston Bruins
- View from the North Country
- When Do We Get the “Big One”?