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Green Book February 1991

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Bond Market Summary

War, recession, falling oil prices and other good inflation news combined to support the U.S. fixed income markets in January.

Fearless Forecasts...1991

Readers should not confuse these forecasts with the more traditional economic and market predictions that appeared in our January issue. However, in the past, these “Fearless Forecasts” have, at times, been closer to the mark than the conventional predictions.

Joke of the Month

“Awful’’ Knutson, The Leuthold Group’s current crusty old Norwegian stock market timing consultant, is this month’s winner, dedicating his entry to Evel’s Hartford friend, Pete.

Major Trend Index Shifts to Positive Mode

We now expect stocks to move considerably higher. Based on our Intrinsic Value studies, the S&P 500 has room to move into the 400-420 zone, the DJIA to 3300-3600. These levels represent gains from current levels of 20%-30%. Secondary stocks are expected to do even better than this.

Playing the Bounce Update

The bounce stocks currently are outperforming the market by a big margin. In the early days of February, they have continued to soar.

Questions You May Have About the Major Trend Index

I know at least some readers are even now wanting to ask questions, similar to the following. So let me get the jump on you.

Scanning the Markets

A performance rundown for our equity market sectors (and other measures) ranked by January 1991 performance (80% of our sectors beat the S&P 500 in January).

Secondary Stocks: Is It For Real?

Once again secondary stocks have started out the New Year with a burst of strength. Is it for real this time? Or is it just another January false start for secondary stocks?

View from the North Country

While the New Zealand stock market did rally 7%-8% in January, it has few friends, not even in those few remaining New Zealand brokerage firms.

“Defense-High Tech” Sector

This may be a tactical war play, but it could be more. Some of these stocks may once again be recognized as growth stocks, even if we see a speedy resolution of the Mideast conflict.

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