Green Book May 1990
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
In mid-April, the bond market broke sharply, stabilizing late in the month. The decline brought T-bonds down into the upper ranges of our buying zone (9%-10%). But in the first days of May they have rallied to 8.90%.
Contrary Opinion Corner: High Tech Defense Stocks
The stocks are cheap because they are currently very unpopular. Peace has, at least momentarily, pretty much swept the world. Unfortunately I doubt this will last. Human nature has really not improved much over the ages.
Earnings Momentum
A month ago, this work appeared to be giving some support to the “soft landing” thesis. But the earnings reports published in April provide a more negative message.
Joke of the Month
Chuck Zender of The Leuthold Group tells about the eight year old visiting his Grandma. He was full of questions.
No Change in Our Outlook
The stock market bent in April but did not break. Nevertheless, our market disciplines continue to repeat their dreary message.
Projecting Stock Market Levels Using Intrinsic Value Benchmarks
How far would today’s stock market have to fall to achieve normal benchmark valuation levels? How far would it have to fall to reach 1987 post-crash levels? On the brighter side, how far up would today’s market have to move to match the valuation extremes of 1987’s third quarter?
Scanning the Markets
A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by April 1990 performance.
Stock Market Commentary
Upon returning to the office at month end, my first impression of April stock market action was positive. But then I dug into our indicators, chart books and numbers. It was clear my first impression was wrong.
View from the North Country
What’s Up In Japan...Not High on Northwest Airlines...The Good Guys Are Leaving (Office)...Fat Is Where It’s At (Fearless Forecast)...Harley Davidson (Model Portfolio Stock) Introduces New Fat Boy Bike...Phony Evel Knutson Communique Surfaces!
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- No Change in Our Outlook
- Stock Market Commentary
- Projecting Stock Market Levels Using Intrinsic Value Benchmarks
- View from the North Country
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
In mid-April, the bond market broke sharply, stabilizing late in the month. The decline brought T-bonds down into the upper ranges of our buying zone (9%-10%). But in the first days of May they have rallied to 8.90%.
Contrary Opinion Corner: High Tech Defense Stocks
The stocks are cheap because they are currently very unpopular. Peace has, at least momentarily, pretty much swept the world. Unfortunately I doubt this will last. Human nature has really not improved much over the ages.
Earnings Momentum
A month ago, this work appeared to be giving some support to the “soft landing” thesis. But the earnings reports published in April provide a more negative message.
Joke of the Month
Chuck Zender of The Leuthold Group tells about the eight year old visiting his Grandma. He was full of questions.
No Change in Our Outlook
The stock market bent in April but did not break. Nevertheless, our market disciplines continue to repeat their dreary message.
Projecting Stock Market Levels Using Intrinsic Value Benchmarks
How far would today’s stock market have to fall to achieve normal benchmark valuation levels? How far would it have to fall to reach 1987 post-crash levels? On the brighter side, how far up would today’s market have to move to match the valuation extremes of 1987’s third quarter?
Scanning the Markets
A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by April 1990 performance.
Stock Market Commentary
Upon returning to the office at month end, my first impression of April stock market action was positive. But then I dug into our indicators, chart books and numbers. It was clear my first impression was wrong.
View from the North Country
What’s Up In Japan...Not High on Northwest Airlines...The Good Guys Are Leaving (Office)...Fat Is Where It’s At (Fearless Forecast)...Harley Davidson (Model Portfolio Stock) Introduces New Fat Boy Bike...Phony Evel Knutson Communique Surfaces!
Stock Market
- No Change in Our Outlook
- Stock Market Commentary
- Projecting Stock Market Levels Using Intrinsic Value Benchmarks
- View from the North Country