Green Book December 1989
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
I continue to believe that at least a mild recession is in the cards for 1990 and that the deficit will soon start to expand. However, I no longer think this will be a strong negative in terms of bond market psychology, at least not over the next six months or so.
Bullish on Bonds and Bearish on Stocks?
Remember the basics: A slowing economy should bring lower interest rates but it also typically brings declining earnings, not usually a good environment for stocks.
Defensive Posture Maintained
It continues to appear that the stock market is forming a major cyclical bull market top. The Major Trend Index continued to deteriorate in November and indicates the market is in poor health and a cyclical bear market is likely.
Earnings Momentum Update: The Current Sag Continues
In November, we had a number of clients inquire about the current status of our earnings momentum monitor, so we have again decided to publish an update of this work. Just a cursory glance at our Advance/Decline chart is all that is needed to see that the earnings momentum is slowing dramatically.
Joke of the Month
We didn’t even have a good runner up this month. This joke, told by Lee Cooperman at the November Collins Associates Conference in Newport Beach, was the uncontested winner.
Scanning the Markets
A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by November performance. All screen based Quantitative Themes are included, both active and experimental.
View from the North Country
Speaker Notes from Collins Associates Client Conference...The Passing of Two Good Friends, Jim Arnold and Sedge Coppock...Other Voices on Program Trading...What Is Going on In Gold
“Playing the Bounce”
For 10 years, The Leuthold Group has been sending out a list of year end trading suggestions. In November and December, we go “bottom fishing” for stocks that are overextended on the downside. This is an updated and revised list from the one sent out in a mid-November 1989 Interim Memo.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
I continue to believe that at least a mild recession is in the cards for 1990 and that the deficit will soon start to expand. However, I no longer think this will be a strong negative in terms of bond market psychology, at least not over the next six months or so.
Bullish on Bonds and Bearish on Stocks?
Remember the basics: A slowing economy should bring lower interest rates but it also typically brings declining earnings, not usually a good environment for stocks.
Defensive Posture Maintained
It continues to appear that the stock market is forming a major cyclical bull market top. The Major Trend Index continued to deteriorate in November and indicates the market is in poor health and a cyclical bear market is likely.
Earnings Momentum Update: The Current Sag Continues
In November, we had a number of clients inquire about the current status of our earnings momentum monitor, so we have again decided to publish an update of this work. Just a cursory glance at our Advance/Decline chart is all that is needed to see that the earnings momentum is slowing dramatically.
Joke of the Month
We didn’t even have a good runner up this month. This joke, told by Lee Cooperman at the November Collins Associates Conference in Newport Beach, was the uncontested winner.
Scanning the Markets
A performance run down for our equity market sectors ranked by November performance. All screen based Quantitative Themes are included, both active and experimental.
View from the North Country
Speaker Notes from Collins Associates Client Conference...The Passing of Two Good Friends, Jim Arnold and Sedge Coppock...Other Voices on Program Trading...What Is Going on In Gold
“Playing the Bounce”
For 10 years, The Leuthold Group has been sending out a list of year end trading suggestions. In November and December, we go “bottom fishing” for stocks that are overextended on the downside. This is an updated and revised list from the one sent out in a mid-November 1989 Interim Memo.