Green Book April 1988
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Featured Articles
A New Bond Yield Histogram, 1857-1987
Several years ago, we first published a histogram presenting average annual yields for highest quality U.S. bonds, 1790 to date. However, I wanted to examine historical yield distributions with more precision, presenting average quarterly yields, as well as average annual yields.
Back on Track
After one week of a “neutral” reading in March, our Major Trend Index returned to positive territory the following week. I continue to think a 15%-20% move in popular measures is a good possibility in the next six to nine months.
Bond Market Summary
T-bonds slide 4-5 points in March, with corporates holding up better. Bonds look good, but T-bonds are expected to suffer from renewed inflation fears, dollar weakness, deficit concerns and maybe big foreign selling.
Joke of the Month
The Joke of the Month award goes to our friend Jim Arnold of Arnold Investment Counsel. It is an October Crash joke, but I like it anyway.
The Shift to Secondary Stocks
March was another strong relative month for secondary stocks. We are now operating under the assumption that a significant shift in market character has occurred.
The Stock Market and Inflation: A Remedial Lesson
U.S. economic history, as I read it, does not support a contention that higher inflation means a stronger stock market. Some believe inflation may be heating up again, so maybe it is appropriate to provide a remedial lesson.
View from the North Country
Asset Allocation Today: The Age of Specialized Money Managers…Northwest Airlines: Smoke Free and Toilet Free Flights?
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View from the North Country
- Back on Track
- The Shift to Secondary Stocks
- The Stock Market and Inflation: A Remedial Lesson
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
At Random
A New Bond Yield Histogram, 1857-1987
Several years ago, we first published a histogram presenting average annual yields for highest quality U.S. bonds, 1790 to date. However, I wanted to examine historical yield distributions with more precision, presenting average quarterly yields, as well as average annual yields.
Back on Track
After one week of a “neutral” reading in March, our Major Trend Index returned to positive territory the following week. I continue to think a 15%-20% move in popular measures is a good possibility in the next six to nine months.
Bond Market Summary
T-bonds slide 4-5 points in March, with corporates holding up better. Bonds look good, but T-bonds are expected to suffer from renewed inflation fears, dollar weakness, deficit concerns and maybe big foreign selling.
Joke of the Month
The Joke of the Month award goes to our friend Jim Arnold of Arnold Investment Counsel. It is an October Crash joke, but I like it anyway.
The Shift to Secondary Stocks
March was another strong relative month for secondary stocks. We are now operating under the assumption that a significant shift in market character has occurred.
The Stock Market and Inflation: A Remedial Lesson
U.S. economic history, as I read it, does not support a contention that higher inflation means a stronger stock market. Some believe inflation may be heating up again, so maybe it is appropriate to provide a remedial lesson.
View from the North Country
Asset Allocation Today: The Age of Specialized Money Managers…Northwest Airlines: Smoke Free and Toilet Free Flights?
Stock Market
- View from the North Country
- Back on Track
- The Shift to Secondary Stocks
- The Stock Market and Inflation: A Remedial Lesson