Green Book March 1986
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Featured Articles
A Bullseye, Almost
Last month this publication included it’s annual “Fearless Forecasts,” those frivolous flights of fancy that occasionally come true. Do you recall the one predicting it would be discovered that acid rain can be neutralized by seeding clouds with massive amounts of Rolaids?
Bond Market Summary
Incredible February action. 8% looks like a trouble zone for a while, but we still expect to see 7.5% or lower over the next twelve months. Traders should be selling some bonds around 8%.
Client Questions
Let’s get some recent client questions out of the way, questions I suspect other readers might also have.
Inside the Stock Market
A few “experts” who haven’t learned about percentages yet called the February surge “unprecedented,” the largest monthly move in history. Well it was hardly that, but it was a very strong market.
Intrinsic Value Comparisons
How does the market stand today in terms of historical ranges? Overall, it is above the historical medians for these intrinsic value measures, but not yet extremely overvalued. Clearly though, for the first time in twelve years, the stock market is no longer cheap.
Leaders & Laggers
This publication monitors and regularly charts twenty market sectors and only six of these managed to beat the DJIA in February.
Oil: Today and Yesterday and Tomorrow
From a precise timing standpoint, it may still be premature to bottom guess the oils, but it probably is time for big portfolios to start accumulating. The recent waterfall decline in oil prices is nothing new. A number of similar declines have taken place over U.S. economic history. The future? Very long-term, oil is not a very attractive industry.
Taking Out Term Insurance on a Stock Portfolio
Like any insurance, there is a premium, but this insurance can be taken out for only a limited period, only when the storm warnings are flying. This section attempts to provide a simple explanation as to what this index put insurance stuff is all about.
View from the North Country
Cold Winter in the Farm Belt: Farmland may be closer than we thought to bottoming out…it Just might be buying time. The IRA Temptation: Now that many IRA accounts have grown to meaningful size they are in increasing danger of being mismanaged.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View from the North Country
- Inside the Stock Market
- Client Questions
- Intrinsic Value Comparisons
- Taking Out Term Insurance on a Stock Portfolio
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
A Bullseye, Almost
Last month this publication included it’s annual “Fearless Forecasts,” those frivolous flights of fancy that occasionally come true. Do you recall the one predicting it would be discovered that acid rain can be neutralized by seeding clouds with massive amounts of Rolaids?
Bond Market Summary
Incredible February action. 8% looks like a trouble zone for a while, but we still expect to see 7.5% or lower over the next twelve months. Traders should be selling some bonds around 8%.
Client Questions
Let’s get some recent client questions out of the way, questions I suspect other readers might also have.
Inside the Stock Market
A few “experts” who haven’t learned about percentages yet called the February surge “unprecedented,” the largest monthly move in history. Well it was hardly that, but it was a very strong market.
Intrinsic Value Comparisons
How does the market stand today in terms of historical ranges? Overall, it is above the historical medians for these intrinsic value measures, but not yet extremely overvalued. Clearly though, for the first time in twelve years, the stock market is no longer cheap.
Leaders & Laggers
This publication monitors and regularly charts twenty market sectors and only six of these managed to beat the DJIA in February.
Oil: Today and Yesterday and Tomorrow
From a precise timing standpoint, it may still be premature to bottom guess the oils, but it probably is time for big portfolios to start accumulating. The recent waterfall decline in oil prices is nothing new. A number of similar declines have taken place over U.S. economic history. The future? Very long-term, oil is not a very attractive industry.
Taking Out Term Insurance on a Stock Portfolio
Like any insurance, there is a premium, but this insurance can be taken out for only a limited period, only when the storm warnings are flying. This section attempts to provide a simple explanation as to what this index put insurance stuff is all about.
View from the North Country
Cold Winter in the Farm Belt: Farmland may be closer than we thought to bottoming out…it Just might be buying time. The IRA Temptation: Now that many IRA accounts have grown to meaningful size they are in increasing danger of being mismanaged.
Stock Market
- View from the North Country
- Inside the Stock Market
- Client Questions
- Intrinsic Value Comparisons
- Taking Out Term Insurance on a Stock Portfolio