Green Book April 1986
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Featured Articles
A Hot Group: Furniture
The furniture stocks have been hot recently, but we have a hunch you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. There are going to be a lot of upside earnings surprises over the next twelve months.
Attention: Phil Gramm
Now here is a great plan for shrinking government spending. It comes not from a politician, not from Peter Grace and not from the White House staff. It come from Gallagher.
Bond Market Summary
Incredible action again in March. Long T-bonds are beating stocks year to date. Short-term and long-term bonds look higher and don’t ignore the possibility of a “return to normalcy” (6%) in 1986. It seems unlikely, but it could happen sooner than even we had imagined.
Inside the Stock Market
Our second Interim Memo of 1986 was sent out in the third week in March saying, “EARLY WARNING WORK SAYS, ‘WATCH OUT!’” Nothing has occurred in the last two weeks to moderate that warning.
Leaders & Laggers
Among the sectors we regularly monitor, the big winners in March were Medical Technology, Shelter and Ethical Drugs. High Tech sector issues and the Oil Patch sector were down on the month while the popular averages scored 5%-7% gains.
More Client Questions
Some of you liked this last month so we will do it again, but I will answer no more questions concerning Evel Knutson.
P/E’s in Perspective
This may put today’s stock market in better perspective. Quarterly P/E’s based on normalized earnings are presented over a 57-year period, broken down by deciles and also presented in graphic form.
View from the North Country
Earnings estimates for the market as a whole are coming down, but not nearly far enough. Clearly the first quarter will be below expectations.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
A Hot Group: Furniture
The furniture stocks have been hot recently, but we have a hunch you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. There are going to be a lot of upside earnings surprises over the next twelve months.
Attention: Phil Gramm
Now here is a great plan for shrinking government spending. It comes not from a politician, not from Peter Grace and not from the White House staff. It come from Gallagher.
Bond Market Summary
Incredible action again in March. Long T-bonds are beating stocks year to date. Short-term and long-term bonds look higher and don’t ignore the possibility of a “return to normalcy” (6%) in 1986. It seems unlikely, but it could happen sooner than even we had imagined.
Inside the Stock Market
Our second Interim Memo of 1986 was sent out in the third week in March saying, “EARLY WARNING WORK SAYS, ‘WATCH OUT!’” Nothing has occurred in the last two weeks to moderate that warning.
Leaders & Laggers
Among the sectors we regularly monitor, the big winners in March were Medical Technology, Shelter and Ethical Drugs. High Tech sector issues and the Oil Patch sector were down on the month while the popular averages scored 5%-7% gains.
More Client Questions
Some of you liked this last month so we will do it again, but I will answer no more questions concerning Evel Knutson.
P/E’s in Perspective
This may put today’s stock market in better perspective. Quarterly P/E’s based on normalized earnings are presented over a 57-year period, broken down by deciles and also presented in graphic form.
View from the North Country
Earnings estimates for the market as a whole are coming down, but not nearly far enough. Clearly the first quarter will be below expectations.