Green Book January 1985
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Featured Articles
1984 Sector Winners and Losers
On a traditional broad sector basis, only three of the eleven sectors we track recorded positive returns in 1984. Looking at our Conceptual Sectors, there were eight of our sometimes unorthodox stock groupings with positive total returns.
Bond Market Summary
While now uneasy about the shorter-term outlook for the bond market, our minimum 1985 target is 10%, perhaps even 8%-9% if the politicians really come to deal with the deficit.
Dreams & Nightmares
1984's Institutional "dream" portfolio made up of the twenty best performing large cap stock groups was up 20% (excluding dividends) while the aggressive "dream" portfolio was up 33%. The "nightmare" portfolio, constructed of the twenty worst groups was down 49%. See? Things could have been worse…
Early 1985: Getting Cash Comfortable
1985 has started out with a thud.
The High-Tech Survivors
You may recall this publication turned very negative on High-Tech stocks in the late spring of 1983....certainly one of our better calls. In a summer 1983 Barron’s article, we projected a decline of 45% or more. Hell, it was more. Now it may be time to start buying them back. Some of these beaten up stocks will ultimately become established major factors in their fields. Which ones?
View from the North Country
It is 1985 prediction time. Wall Street Is filled with hot air. We add to this thermal pollution with our own predictions for the 1985 economy, earnings, inflation, deficits, Interest rates, value of the dollar and the stock market.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
1984 Sector Winners and Losers
On a traditional broad sector basis, only three of the eleven sectors we track recorded positive returns in 1984. Looking at our Conceptual Sectors, there were eight of our sometimes unorthodox stock groupings with positive total returns.
Bond Market Summary
While now uneasy about the shorter-term outlook for the bond market, our minimum 1985 target is 10%, perhaps even 8%-9% if the politicians really come to deal with the deficit.
Dreams & Nightmares
1984's Institutional "dream" portfolio made up of the twenty best performing large cap stock groups was up 20% (excluding dividends) while the aggressive "dream" portfolio was up 33%. The "nightmare" portfolio, constructed of the twenty worst groups was down 49%. See? Things could have been worse…
Early 1985: Getting Cash Comfortable
1985 has started out with a thud.
The High-Tech Survivors
You may recall this publication turned very negative on High-Tech stocks in the late spring of 1983....certainly one of our better calls. In a summer 1983 Barron’s article, we projected a decline of 45% or more. Hell, it was more. Now it may be time to start buying them back. Some of these beaten up stocks will ultimately become established major factors in their fields. Which ones?
View from the North Country
It is 1985 prediction time. Wall Street Is filled with hot air. We add to this thermal pollution with our own predictions for the 1985 economy, earnings, inflation, deficits, Interest rates, value of the dollar and the stock market.