Green Book September 1984
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Featured Articles
A History of Model Portfolio Sector Commitments
A month by month listing of both conceptual and conventional model portfolio sector holdings, January 1982 to date.
Bond Market Summary
In some ways, the bond market is more impressive than the stock market. We continue to think it may be a brand-new ball game for a while with a growing number of new players. Throw out your old rule books? Our pre-election expectation for T-Bonds is 11%-12%.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index is positive, but not as robust as a few weeks ago. The Early Warning work is okay, giving no indication of an impending major or intermediate market top.
New Bull? Second Leg?.....Or Bear Market Rally?
This move now appears to be a “second” leg, not an extraordinarily large bear market rally and not a new cyclical bull market.
The Growing Popularity of Sector Rotation
Too many institutions are playing the sector rotation game. Typical portfolio turnover has increased considerably, and popularity has rotated faster than the rotary engine in a Mazda RX7. For the last year or so, our own sector strategies have been undergoing a change, becoming increasingly narrow. This is a significantly different approach than the broad economic sector approach that is now so popular.
View from the North Country
Back to the Basics? We think individual stock analysis is becoming increasingly important… Tax Simplification Coming Soon: The 1984 additions to the tax laws (over 1300 pages) may be the last straw… A Potential Shortage in Treasury Bonds: I know this sounds absurd. However, in the upcoming financing, the Treasury is for the first time offering a 20-year bond that is callable in five years.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
A History of Model Portfolio Sector Commitments
A month by month listing of both conceptual and conventional model portfolio sector holdings, January 1982 to date.
Bond Market Summary
In some ways, the bond market is more impressive than the stock market. We continue to think it may be a brand-new ball game for a while with a growing number of new players. Throw out your old rule books? Our pre-election expectation for T-Bonds is 11%-12%.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index is positive, but not as robust as a few weeks ago. The Early Warning work is okay, giving no indication of an impending major or intermediate market top.
New Bull? Second Leg?.....Or Bear Market Rally?
This move now appears to be a “second” leg, not an extraordinarily large bear market rally and not a new cyclical bull market.
The Growing Popularity of Sector Rotation
Too many institutions are playing the sector rotation game. Typical portfolio turnover has increased considerably, and popularity has rotated faster than the rotary engine in a Mazda RX7. For the last year or so, our own sector strategies have been undergoing a change, becoming increasingly narrow. This is a significantly different approach than the broad economic sector approach that is now so popular.
View from the North Country
Back to the Basics? We think individual stock analysis is becoming increasingly important… Tax Simplification Coming Soon: The 1984 additions to the tax laws (over 1300 pages) may be the last straw… A Potential Shortage in Treasury Bonds: I know this sounds absurd. However, in the upcoming financing, the Treasury is for the first time offering a 20-year bond that is callable in five years.