Green Book June 1984
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Featured Articles
A Different Kind of X-Ray
We hear what the politicians say, but how do they vote? Herein, the 1983 voting records on spending issues are tabulated and compared for every U.S. Senator. We then classify the Senators, ranging from “Tough as Nails” to “Totally Irresponsible.” See where your two Senators rank.
A Sign of the Times
Wall Street humor is typically cynical, iconoclastic and acerbic. And, the worse the markets get, the sicker and more perverted the humor seems to get.
Bond Market Summary
T-Bonds at their recent lows were down 30% from peak levels. Yes, it has been a bear market, but it may be about over. At minimum, a strong move to 11%-12% levels is expected before election day. Is the five-point move in recent days the 10 beginning of this? Maybe …
Gilt Edged Growth Vs. Cyclical
During May, cyclical stocks fell almost 10.5%, while our Gilt Edged Growth stock index fell 7.4%. Thus, again on a relative basis, growth was better. Momentum now clearly favors growth and we think growth stocks have regained the upper hand.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index shifted to Negative status as noted in the special May 22 Interim Memo. However, downside vulnerability appears quite limited. At any rate, expect a good market in the last half of 1984. It is too late in the decline for most to build cash, although some futures hedging may be appropriate for those who can.
The Bond/Stock Relationship
A stronger bond market does not necessarily mean a simultaneous rally in stock prices. The two markets did not move in tandem on the way down, and the stock market might well lag on the way up.
View from the North Country
Do You Know the Way to Monterey? Steve’s notes from the MTA seminar in Monterey, California…..Maybe the Best to be Said About May 1984 Is… It’s now history. It was a rotten month.
“YIPES!....Here Come the Zeros!”
I expect Zeros will make a bigger splash in pension circles over the next twelve months than did GIC’s, Index Funds, Venture Capital or Real Estate. Dr. Harold Ehrlich does not go quite that far, but he thinks Zeros should “be recognized as being among the most important financial instruments ever invented.”
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
A Different Kind of X-Ray
We hear what the politicians say, but how do they vote? Herein, the 1983 voting records on spending issues are tabulated and compared for every U.S. Senator. We then classify the Senators, ranging from “Tough as Nails” to “Totally Irresponsible.” See where your two Senators rank.
A Sign of the Times
Wall Street humor is typically cynical, iconoclastic and acerbic. And, the worse the markets get, the sicker and more perverted the humor seems to get.
Bond Market Summary
T-Bonds at their recent lows were down 30% from peak levels. Yes, it has been a bear market, but it may be about over. At minimum, a strong move to 11%-12% levels is expected before election day. Is the five-point move in recent days the 10 beginning of this? Maybe …
Gilt Edged Growth Vs. Cyclical
During May, cyclical stocks fell almost 10.5%, while our Gilt Edged Growth stock index fell 7.4%. Thus, again on a relative basis, growth was better. Momentum now clearly favors growth and we think growth stocks have regained the upper hand.
Inside the Stock Market
The Major Trend Index shifted to Negative status as noted in the special May 22 Interim Memo. However, downside vulnerability appears quite limited. At any rate, expect a good market in the last half of 1984. It is too late in the decline for most to build cash, although some futures hedging may be appropriate for those who can.
The Bond/Stock Relationship
A stronger bond market does not necessarily mean a simultaneous rally in stock prices. The two markets did not move in tandem on the way down, and the stock market might well lag on the way up.
View from the North Country
Do You Know the Way to Monterey? Steve’s notes from the MTA seminar in Monterey, California…..Maybe the Best to be Said About May 1984 Is… It’s now history. It was a rotten month.
“YIPES!....Here Come the Zeros!”
I expect Zeros will make a bigger splash in pension circles over the next twelve months than did GIC’s, Index Funds, Venture Capital or Real Estate. Dr. Harold Ehrlich does not go quite that far, but he thinks Zeros should “be recognized as being among the most important financial instruments ever invented.”