Green Book February 1984
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
After drifting lower in December, the bond market drifted higher in January. Corporates turned in the best showing, with two-point gains fairly typical. Municipals were up 1 1/2 points while Long T-bonds moved up about a point. Yields declined 20 to 40 basis points, depending on the type of security.
Inside the Stock Market
Our Major Trend Index says it’s still a cyclical bull market. The market is now in final washout phase of the long complex correction dating back to late June 1983. Expect to see lows momentarily, followed by powerful upswing carrying to new market highs by summer.
Making a Play on Interest Rates in Equities
If a manager has the freedom to buy bonds, there does not seem to be much reason to buy interest sensitive equities as a strategy unless there are other positive factors. Tables in this section demonstrate why. However, if you can’t buy bonds the next best thing is buying high yield top quality utilities with minimal nuclear exposure, as close to a bond proxy as you can get.
Reducing Equity Risk While Retaining 50%+ Upside Potential
Does it make sense to buy the traditional “defensive” stocks in the later stages of a bull market? If upside potential is viewed as only 20%-25%, it may not make much sense at all. However, we think risk can be reduced without giving up much potential reward.
View from the North Country
Financially sound regional banks that may, in coming years, be swept up in the now emerging consolidation trend may have significant performance potential. In addition, they should experience a profit surge when interest rates come down. We think potential downside risk with these stocks may also be less than the market.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
- View from the North Country
- Inside the Stock Market
- Reducing Equity Risk While Retaining 50%+ Upside Potential
- Fearless Forecasts 1984
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Bond Market Summary
After drifting lower in December, the bond market drifted higher in January. Corporates turned in the best showing, with two-point gains fairly typical. Municipals were up 1 1/2 points while Long T-bonds moved up about a point. Yields declined 20 to 40 basis points, depending on the type of security.
Inside the Stock Market
Our Major Trend Index says it’s still a cyclical bull market. The market is now in final washout phase of the long complex correction dating back to late June 1983. Expect to see lows momentarily, followed by powerful upswing carrying to new market highs by summer.
Making a Play on Interest Rates in Equities
If a manager has the freedom to buy bonds, there does not seem to be much reason to buy interest sensitive equities as a strategy unless there are other positive factors. Tables in this section demonstrate why. However, if you can’t buy bonds the next best thing is buying high yield top quality utilities with minimal nuclear exposure, as close to a bond proxy as you can get.
Reducing Equity Risk While Retaining 50%+ Upside Potential
Does it make sense to buy the traditional “defensive” stocks in the later stages of a bull market? If upside potential is viewed as only 20%-25%, it may not make much sense at all. However, we think risk can be reduced without giving up much potential reward.
View from the North Country
Financially sound regional banks that may, in coming years, be swept up in the now emerging consolidation trend may have significant performance potential. In addition, they should experience a profit surge when interest rates come down. We think potential downside risk with these stocks may also be less than the market.
Stock Market
- View from the North Country
- Inside the Stock Market
- Reducing Equity Risk While Retaining 50%+ Upside Potential
- Fearless Forecasts 1984