Green Book August 1984
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Featured Articles
All’s Quiet on the Inflation Front (Now What About Deflation?)
At this point there is no indication inflation may be about to accelerate. Some may recall that in the early spring of 1984, this work led us to conclude that 1984 inflation might be a lot lower than most then thought at the time. This section also includes comments on the possibilities of deflation and what might be expected if it does occur. It probably would not be the disaster some seem to think.
Bond Market Summary
In many ways the bond market is more impressive than the stock market. In some ways I think it is a brand-new ball game with a growing number of new players. Throw out your old rule books. We have raised our maximum pre-election expectation for T-Bonds to 10%, up from 11%.
So, What Happened?
Hopefully clients read the late July Interim memos. Truthfully, the move is a tad more than expected. What now? The last calculation of the Major Trend Index produced a still negative but improved reading. A new reading will be available August 7. Just a huge rally or a new bull market? I think it’s the latter, but want confirmation from our Major Trend Index.
Time to Buy? Diffusion Index Says Yes!
Our weekly work comparing prices of 94 commodities with levels 12 months previous seems to function quite well as a stock market timing device and is also helpful at times with the bond market. At the end of July, it registered a “buy signal” for both. Take a look at this section and see how this has worked out 1973 to date.
View from the North Country
Using Roll Call voting record statistics provided by the National Taxpayers Union, we previously examined the Senate. This issue, trends in the House are analyzed. Overall, fiscal responsibility is on the wane, especially with Democrats.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
All’s Quiet on the Inflation Front (Now What About Deflation?)
At this point there is no indication inflation may be about to accelerate. Some may recall that in the early spring of 1984, this work led us to conclude that 1984 inflation might be a lot lower than most then thought at the time. This section also includes comments on the possibilities of deflation and what might be expected if it does occur. It probably would not be the disaster some seem to think.
Bond Market Summary
In many ways the bond market is more impressive than the stock market. In some ways I think it is a brand-new ball game with a growing number of new players. Throw out your old rule books. We have raised our maximum pre-election expectation for T-Bonds to 10%, up from 11%.
So, What Happened?
Hopefully clients read the late July Interim memos. Truthfully, the move is a tad more than expected. What now? The last calculation of the Major Trend Index produced a still negative but improved reading. A new reading will be available August 7. Just a huge rally or a new bull market? I think it’s the latter, but want confirmation from our Major Trend Index.
Time to Buy? Diffusion Index Says Yes!
Our weekly work comparing prices of 94 commodities with levels 12 months previous seems to function quite well as a stock market timing device and is also helpful at times with the bond market. At the end of July, it registered a “buy signal” for both. Take a look at this section and see how this has worked out 1973 to date.
View from the North Country
Using Roll Call voting record statistics provided by the National Taxpayers Union, we previously examined the Senate. This issue, trends in the House are analyzed. Overall, fiscal responsibility is on the wane, especially with Democrats.