Green Book September 1983
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
The bond market is in the midst of both secular and cyclical bull moves. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-Bonds in the next 12-18 months, maybe much lower on a secular basis. The current correction has carried to our buying zone and we are continuing last month’s new buy program in long T-Bonds.
Inside the Stock Market
Short-term, the DJIA is charging but a lot of market troops are hanging back. We are not so sure the correction is over. However, the cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago, is starting to look healthier.
The High-Tech Thirty (Continued) and “Let’s Get Competitive”
The High-Tech Thirty index was introduced last month and fostered considerable interest. We have done additional work, providing more back history, and drawn a new chart. “Let’s Get Competitive” was introduced in a special feature last month however, because of timing considerations, we have not yet started building a major portfolio holding in this area. But maybe we should stop trying to get so cute and get on with it.
View from the North Country
A preview of this issue’s “In Focus” feature on the relative attractiveness of “Zero” Treasury securities. Also, an Inflation Watch update: The caution flag is still up, but our monitoring tools are in no worse shape than a month ago. Actually, a few are just a shade less ominous.
“Zero” Bonds Vs. Stocks…A Long, Long-term Perspective
A 12% annual compound growth rate can be locked in through the purchase of Treasury “Zeros.” Over 23 years this is a government guaranteed 1250%+ total return. In this extended research piece, risk is evaluated and the mechanics of creating and buying Zero bonds are discussed. Frankly, we were astounded by the results of this study.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Bond Market Summary
The bond market is in the midst of both secular and cyclical bull moves. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-Bonds in the next 12-18 months, maybe much lower on a secular basis. The current correction has carried to our buying zone and we are continuing last month’s new buy program in long T-Bonds.
Inside the Stock Market
Short-term, the DJIA is charging but a lot of market troops are hanging back. We are not so sure the correction is over. However, the cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago, is starting to look healthier.
The High-Tech Thirty (Continued) and “Let’s Get Competitive”
The High-Tech Thirty index was introduced last month and fostered considerable interest. We have done additional work, providing more back history, and drawn a new chart. “Let’s Get Competitive” was introduced in a special feature last month however, because of timing considerations, we have not yet started building a major portfolio holding in this area. But maybe we should stop trying to get so cute and get on with it.
View from the North Country
A preview of this issue’s “In Focus” feature on the relative attractiveness of “Zero” Treasury securities. Also, an Inflation Watch update: The caution flag is still up, but our monitoring tools are in no worse shape than a month ago. Actually, a few are just a shade less ominous.
“Zero” Bonds Vs. Stocks…A Long, Long-term Perspective
A 12% annual compound growth rate can be locked in through the purchase of Treasury “Zeros.” Over 23 years this is a government guaranteed 1250%+ total return. In this extended research piece, risk is evaluated and the mechanics of creating and buying Zero bonds are discussed. Frankly, we were astounded by the results of this study.