Green Book October 1983
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
The bond market is in the midst of both secular and cyclical bull moves. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-Bonds in the next 12-18 months. Maybe much lower on a secular basis. The recent correction carried to our 12% T-Bond buying zone and we loaded up again.
For Readers That Run
Think of this when you “hit the wall” in your favorite fall marathon.
Health Care Today and Tomorrow....And One Specific Investment Opportunity Area
In recent years health care stocks have developed a bad case of two tier-ism. Health care service issues have been hot numbers while more traditional health care issues, primarily the big ethical drug issues languished. From now on it may be the other way around.
Inflation Watch: Mostly Good News, But....
The one-year diffusion index of 90 commodities is indicating a resurgence of inflation may be right around the corner. We think it is wrong. Our other tools don’t confirm. However, the past record of this tool cannot be ignored.
Inside the Stock Market
Short-term, an October decline may be in order, but nothing serious. Most excesses have been worked off in the third quarter. The cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago, is looking much healthier.
View from the North Country
Big equity structure changes in the last 30 days, one of the most dramatic shifts made in 12 years. Oil Patch holdings reduced, new position in Ethical Drugs and “new” Let’s Get Competitive thesis (improving manufacturing and industrial productivity). Other small sector shifts not very significant.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
At Random
Bond Market Summary
The bond market is in the midst of both secular and cyclical bull moves. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-Bonds in the next 12-18 months. Maybe much lower on a secular basis. The recent correction carried to our 12% T-Bond buying zone and we loaded up again.
For Readers That Run
Think of this when you “hit the wall” in your favorite fall marathon.
Health Care Today and Tomorrow....And One Specific Investment Opportunity Area
In recent years health care stocks have developed a bad case of two tier-ism. Health care service issues have been hot numbers while more traditional health care issues, primarily the big ethical drug issues languished. From now on it may be the other way around.
Inflation Watch: Mostly Good News, But....
The one-year diffusion index of 90 commodities is indicating a resurgence of inflation may be right around the corner. We think it is wrong. Our other tools don’t confirm. However, the past record of this tool cannot be ignored.
Inside the Stock Market
Short-term, an October decline may be in order, but nothing serious. Most excesses have been worked off in the third quarter. The cyclical bull market, exploding over a year ago, is looking much healthier.
View from the North Country
Big equity structure changes in the last 30 days, one of the most dramatic shifts made in 12 years. Oil Patch holdings reduced, new position in Ethical Drugs and “new” Let’s Get Competitive thesis (improving manufacturing and industrial productivity). Other small sector shifts not very significant.