Green Book July 1983
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
The bond market is in the midst of both secular and cyclical bull moves. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-bonds, maybe much lower on a secular basis. The current correction might run to 12%-12.5% for T-bonds, but we are tempted to start a buying program before that.
Common Stock Dividend Yields and DJIA 3000
In this “In Focus” feature, 103 years of common stock dividend yields are compared. Today’s prevailing yields are put in historic perspective. Then various future stock market models are constructed, employing a variety of future earnings and dividend growth rates. Considering dividend yield history, the “super bulls” target of DJIA 3000 before the end of the decade seems close to impossible.
How This Bull Market Stacks Up
The May issue of this publication featured a month-by-month comparison of all bull markets in this century. Per reader request, we’ve updated the comparison.
Inside the Stock Market
The stock market is maybe half or two-thirds of the way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. But the current cyclical bull market is no longer so healthy. Mutual fund mania continues - factoring in the May ICI statistics over the last twelve months, net cash flow into equity oriented mutual funds is now up 10.8% of assets, equaling the previous high-water marks of 1955-1957.
View from the North Country
Long-Term Capital Gains Pressure: In the last month or so several have commented that the stock market will be subjected to significant selling pressure in late summer, early fall. Inflation Watch: Things are looking better. The possibility of any significant uptick in inflation in the last half of 1983 now looks very remote. However, 1984-1985 is another matter.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Bond Market Summary
The bond market is in the midst of both secular and cyclical bull moves. The cyclical bull market target zone is 9% yields for T-bonds, maybe much lower on a secular basis. The current correction might run to 12%-12.5% for T-bonds, but we are tempted to start a buying program before that.
Common Stock Dividend Yields and DJIA 3000
In this “In Focus” feature, 103 years of common stock dividend yields are compared. Today’s prevailing yields are put in historic perspective. Then various future stock market models are constructed, employing a variety of future earnings and dividend growth rates. Considering dividend yield history, the “super bulls” target of DJIA 3000 before the end of the decade seems close to impossible.
How This Bull Market Stacks Up
The May issue of this publication featured a month-by-month comparison of all bull markets in this century. Per reader request, we’ve updated the comparison.
Inside the Stock Market
The stock market is maybe half or two-thirds of the way through a secular bull move beginning in 1974. But the current cyclical bull market is no longer so healthy. Mutual fund mania continues - factoring in the May ICI statistics over the last twelve months, net cash flow into equity oriented mutual funds is now up 10.8% of assets, equaling the previous high-water marks of 1955-1957.
View from the North Country
Long-Term Capital Gains Pressure: In the last month or so several have commented that the stock market will be subjected to significant selling pressure in late summer, early fall. Inflation Watch: Things are looking better. The possibility of any significant uptick in inflation in the last half of 1983 now looks very remote. However, 1984-1985 is another matter.