Green Book August 1983
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Featured Articles
Bond Market Summary
July and early August were quite unpleasant. T-bonds led the parade on the downside with yields rising over 100 basis points since our last issue. Damage in the quality corporate sector was not quite so severe, and the lower quality junk bonds only lost a few points.
Inside the Stock Market
The current cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is no longer so healthy. The Major Trend Index is still positive but deteriorating. The expected intermediate correction is upon us and could be greater than most now think. The duration could be as long as 2 months.
The High-Tech Blood Bath: Less Than Half Over?
An index has been constructed out of 30 of 1983’s favorite high-tech stocks. Through August 8, the index is down 19% from the June 24 peak, following a 63% 1983 advance. The decline is right in line with expectations and the “bloodbath” may be less than half over.
View from the North Country
Inflation Watch - Will inflation accelerate significantly in the next 12 months? Some indicators are again looking more ominous. Gold for Pension Funds? We have been long-time believers in individuals holding gold as a form of insurance protection against possible future hyperinflation. Why not for pension funds, too?
“Let’s Get Competitive”: A Conceptual Investment Theme
Capital spending to improve manufacturing and industrial productivity may be much higher than anticipated over the next three years. Management confidence is growing, and attitudes are changing: “Yes, we can compete with our overseas rivals.” Here are the stocks and industries that should be the major beneficiaries of this projected development.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Macro Monitor
Equity Strategies
Bond Market Summary
July and early August were quite unpleasant. T-bonds led the parade on the downside with yields rising over 100 basis points since our last issue. Damage in the quality corporate sector was not quite so severe, and the lower quality junk bonds only lost a few points.
Inside the Stock Market
The current cyclical bull market exploding in the summer of 1982 is no longer so healthy. The Major Trend Index is still positive but deteriorating. The expected intermediate correction is upon us and could be greater than most now think. The duration could be as long as 2 months.
The High-Tech Blood Bath: Less Than Half Over?
An index has been constructed out of 30 of 1983’s favorite high-tech stocks. Through August 8, the index is down 19% from the June 24 peak, following a 63% 1983 advance. The decline is right in line with expectations and the “bloodbath” may be less than half over.
View from the North Country
Inflation Watch - Will inflation accelerate significantly in the next 12 months? Some indicators are again looking more ominous. Gold for Pension Funds? We have been long-time believers in individuals holding gold as a form of insurance protection against possible future hyperinflation. Why not for pension funds, too?
“Let’s Get Competitive”: A Conceptual Investment Theme
Capital spending to improve manufacturing and industrial productivity may be much higher than anticipated over the next three years. Management confidence is growing, and attitudes are changing: “Yes, we can compete with our overseas rivals.” Here are the stocks and industries that should be the major beneficiaries of this projected development.