Green Book October 1982
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Featured Articles
How Much Longer Do the Consumer Stocks Have?
Many consumer stocks are no longer especially cheap, even when 1983 earnings are considered. Nor has the increase in consumer demand most were expecting materialized. While consumer stocks rallied strongly with the strong August market and did not flounder in the September consolidation, they are certainly no longer the mighty market leaders they were earlier in the year. These factors combine, creating a vague uneasiness concerning consumer stocks.
Inside the Stock Market
In September the stock market moved sideways, and just as it seemed the underpinnings would finally crack, just as it seemed our expected correction was about to begin, an explosion occurred, on the up side, not the down side.
Screening the Screens
Once a quarter, sometimes more, a variety of stock selection screens are run. Some of these screens are important factors in the current equity portfolio structure. Here are some highlights from three of these screens.
The Art of Politics and Economics
Reagan’s change of economic course, leaving the hard-core supply-siders behind, was constructive, and from our standpoint, expected. Predictions for the next two years include significant social security reform, implementation of a somewhat watered down, but still very meaningful flat tax. Federal deficits in 1983 and 1984 will probably turn out to be less than now expected. And in November 1982, the Republicans will lose some seats, but the Old Cowboy will still be able to get his way with Congress when it is important.
There Is More “Public” In This Market Than You Think
Did the individual investor buy more stock in the August up blast than most think? Based on a close monthly examination of the equity oriented mutual fund statistics, it looks like it.
View from the North Country
A new nationally distributed newspaper has been born, USA Today. This big gamble might just pay off for Gannett. It is refreshing indeed to see a corporation make a big bet on a high-risk long-term investment, especially in this age of corporate timidity and financial mechanics. Also, Irving Kristol’s remarks at the Western Pension Conference.
Table of Contents
How Much Longer Do the Consumer Stocks Have?
Many consumer stocks are no longer especially cheap, even when 1983 earnings are considered. Nor has the increase in consumer demand most were expecting materialized. While consumer stocks rallied strongly with the strong August market and did not flounder in the September consolidation, they are certainly no longer the mighty market leaders they were earlier in the year. These factors combine, creating a vague uneasiness concerning consumer stocks.
Inside the Stock Market
In September the stock market moved sideways, and just as it seemed the underpinnings would finally crack, just as it seemed our expected correction was about to begin, an explosion occurred, on the up side, not the down side.
Screening the Screens
Once a quarter, sometimes more, a variety of stock selection screens are run. Some of these screens are important factors in the current equity portfolio structure. Here are some highlights from three of these screens.
The Art of Politics and Economics
Reagan’s change of economic course, leaving the hard-core supply-siders behind, was constructive, and from our standpoint, expected. Predictions for the next two years include significant social security reform, implementation of a somewhat watered down, but still very meaningful flat tax. Federal deficits in 1983 and 1984 will probably turn out to be less than now expected. And in November 1982, the Republicans will lose some seats, but the Old Cowboy will still be able to get his way with Congress when it is important.
There Is More “Public” In This Market Than You Think
Did the individual investor buy more stock in the August up blast than most think? Based on a close monthly examination of the equity oriented mutual fund statistics, it looks like it.
View from the North Country
A new nationally distributed newspaper has been born, USA Today. This big gamble might just pay off for Gannett. It is refreshing indeed to see a corporation make a big bet on a high-risk long-term investment, especially in this age of corporate timidity and financial mechanics. Also, Irving Kristol’s remarks at the Western Pension Conference.