Green Book March 1982
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Featured Articles
Productivity Plays – A New Look
This conceptual area, even though now widely recognized, still looks attractive. We may soon again be increasing holdings here from current 10% levels. With this issue, we have refined our approach, separating Science & Technology Productivity Plays from Non-Science & Technology. The S&T components may be most attractive. A new index is introduced to track this segment more closely.
The End Is in Sight. That Is Good.
The stock market is in the process of making a cyclical bear market low. The Early Warning Index for market bottoms has turned Positive. The Major Trend Index is Neutral. It is time to start buying stocks again with cash reserves but hold long bond positions for now.
View from the North Country
Federal debt and its close relationship to inflation is tracked from 1791 to date. Clearly the two are intertwined. Unless some fiscal sanity prevails in Washington, the nation may be in a hyperinflationary mode before the decade is past, regardless of the current cyclical downtrend.
What About the Oils?
Energy market weight now down to 20%, from 32% in late 1980. Historic weighting has been 17%. The worst part of the “round trip” may be close to over. Good rally expected in the next 90 days, but new long-term leadership is not in the cards.
Table of Contents
Stock Market
Of Special Interest
Equity Strategies
Productivity Plays – A New Look
This conceptual area, even though now widely recognized, still looks attractive. We may soon again be increasing holdings here from current 10% levels. With this issue, we have refined our approach, separating Science & Technology Productivity Plays from Non-Science & Technology. The S&T components may be most attractive. A new index is introduced to track this segment more closely.
The End Is in Sight. That Is Good.
The stock market is in the process of making a cyclical bear market low. The Early Warning Index for market bottoms has turned Positive. The Major Trend Index is Neutral. It is time to start buying stocks again with cash reserves but hold long bond positions for now.
View from the North Country
Federal debt and its close relationship to inflation is tracked from 1791 to date. Clearly the two are intertwined. Unless some fiscal sanity prevails in Washington, the nation may be in a hyperinflationary mode before the decade is past, regardless of the current cyclical downtrend.
What About the Oils?
Energy market weight now down to 20%, from 32% in late 1980. Historic weighting has been 17%. The worst part of the “round trip” may be close to over. Good rally expected in the next 90 days, but new long-term leadership is not in the cards.