Articles by Chun Wang, CFA, PRM Director of Multi-Asset Strategies

The Major Trend Index has shifted to Neutral as technical and cyclical conditions soften, while geopolitical risks and rising cross-asset correlations add new uncertainty to the outlook. In this webcast, the team discusses how conflicts, liquidity trends, and evolving risks across AI, private credit, and crypto are shaping today’s investment landscape. They also review current portfolio positioning, sector themes, and the disciplined approach guiding allocation decisions in an increasingly volatile market.

Equity market resilience against war headlines, AI disruption fears, and private credit stress have so far been largely supported by a rare “Goldilocks” macro setup. Enter the three bears: Software stocks, private credit/BDCs, and bitcoin.

The latest CPI numbers are in-line, but the war complicates the outlook. Our scorecard shifts close to neutral and we recommend a more cautious stance toward inflation.

When bombs fly, the reward for bravery is rarely paid on schedule. We do not think this is the time to heroically outguess geopolitics or to confuse short-term fortitude with long-term clarity.

If the dot-com boom was a tale of public markets eagerly underwriting a technological future and then abruptly withdrawing that support, the AI fervor looks like a story of private capital and corporate balance sheets quietly doing the same—but with far less accountability.

While the powerful alignment of fiscal support and monetary easing continues to be favorable for risky assets, the ongoing conflict with Iran has considerably muddled the picture for the economy and inflation.

Equity market resilience against war headlines, AI disruption fears, and private credit stress have so far been largely supported by a rare “Goldilocks” macro setup. Enter the three bears: Software stocks, private credit/BDCs, and bitcoin.

The latest CPI numbers were cooler than the seasonal pattern suggests. Our scorecard continue to suggest a mostly benign inflation picture.

Seasonality and the powerful alignment of fiscal support and monetary easing should provide a favorable backdrop.

The commencement of Trump’s two terms were separated by eight years, a global pandemic, trillions in stimulus, and the quiet burial of several macroeconomic and civic assumptions once thought indestructible. While the personalities and rhetoric remain familiar, the economic backdrop, policy constraints, and market sensitivities of 2025 bore little resemblance to those of 2017.

In January, a surge in Japanese Government Bond yields occurred simultaneously with a selloff in the Yen—a sign of intensifying market concern about fiscal stability. Interestingly, collective stress in both the JGB and Yen has yet to spill over into the Nikkei Index, but if history is any guide, it is doubtful that Japanese equities will continue to be immune.

The latest CPI numbers were largely in-line. The powerful alignment of fiscal and monetary policies will certainly alter the path of inflation this year, but for now, our discipline still suggests a mostly benign inflation picture.

Given the convergency of three key risks related to AI, Bitcoin, and private credit, caution is certainly warranted.

Major market indexes show largely favorable patterns for 2026, but complacency is the real risk after a rare “three-peat” in S&P 500 annual performance.

2025 was a year where “abnormal” became the new normal. From fiscal dominance and stubborn inflation risks to renewed credit stress and a shifting global leadership map, our favorite charts from the past year reveal the forces likely to shape markets in 2026—and where the next opportunities and risks may lie.

SPX pulled off a rare three-peat in 2025, returning +15%-plus for three consecutive years. What often follows is much higher volatility. Yet, strong returns alone do not cause major volatility events. Today’s bigger risk is the unprecedented convergence of three long-running themes: AI, Bitcoin, Private Credit.

Read the latest MTI

The latest CPI numbers were softer than expected, but it doesn’t solve the affordability issue. The powerful alignment of fiscal and monetary policy tools will play a major role in shaping the path of inflation next year.

The favorable seasonal window is upon us and the Fed liquidity condition is poised to turn more positive.

More than halfway through the decade, a lot of things have changed. We revisit several decade-defining charts from the 2010s and consider where these long-running trends stand today.